bolo tara ra ra ji we have difference of opinion only in one ipo and that it is going to list soon and after that many ipos are standing in lines for public offer. We sincerely appreciate your views and hoping for much more advice and cooperation from you.You are also a very intelligent board member that is seen from the style of your writing.You are also a good human being that's why you are on this board even after many curses from other members. We should put our differences on this ipo on one side and will discuss other ipos in future.The life do not end on this gppl ipo.
Dear Mukul 1329 The premium you have mentioned that there is no seller even at Rs 15/- Is this rate prevailing at Gujrat or else where. What do u predict about listing. Should we sell out early in morning or wait? Plz reply
I have already given my strategy again in Post no 1322
Short term guys plz check it
As for long term investors :
i have already given analysis check out post between 630-670. I dont know exact. You will find my complete analysis. This is for people who did not read it and want direction.
I am again pasting my forward figures and price targets:
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 (figures in Rs. Crores)
Operating Revenues: 290, 370, 447, 560, 690
EBIDTA (Earnings Before Interest Depriciation and Tax :
144, 200, 227 300, 400
EBIT 94, 135, 157, 185, 300
PAT: - (-)65, 7, 57, 125 , 270
Debt Equity: 2.5, 1.75, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3
Forward EPS: 0.64, 1.36, 3.0 6.43
Since market discounts one year forward earnings my revised price targets:
2010 Rs. 58
(PE doesnt matter in this year as it is price paid for expectations of turnaround)
2011 Rs. 65
(PE assumed 20 coz positive eps will start)
2012 Rs. 89
( PE assumed 30 coz operating margins will be close to 40% and EPS will double in 2013)
2013 Rs. 192
(PE assumed 30 coz full capacity and 70% eps growth in 2014)
Regards and Best of Luck
Setu
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Disclosure: Me and My clients have added 20% allocation to this stock in their long term portfolio for a horizon of 3-5 years.
Please do your own research and due diligence as it is just my views and analysis. I am not liable if people miss other opportunities because of relying on my analysis and I should not be held liable for the same on listing date or in future.
ALTHOUGH I AM ALSO OF THE OPINION THAT THIS SHARE SHOULD LIST WEAK. WHETHER IN DISCOUNT OR NOT, BUT THIS IS SURE THAT THIS WILL COME BELOW 50 AND RESULT IN NET PROFIT OF RS. 1000 OR EVENE LESS OR EVEN LOSS IN PER ONE LAC APPLICATION.
I AM NOT AGAINST RETAIL INVESTORS. INFACT I MY SELF AM A RETAIL INVESTOR AND ALWAYS GO BY MY PRINCIPLES AND ALSO RECOMMENDS OTHERS TO DO THE SAME.
BUT HERE IN INDIA, HNIS WITH HELP OF GOVT AGENCIES AND LOOPHOLES, TRY TO INFLUENCE RETAIL INVESTORS BY UNFAIR MEANS SUCH AS GREY MARKET ETC. I JUST WANTED TO WARN PUBLIC THAT WHEN MARKETS WERE BAD, EVERYONE WAS SELLING HIS/HER APPLICATION FOR EVEN RS. 1200 PER LAC AND NOW WHEN MARKETS ARE GOOD AFTER FEWW BUMPER LISTINGS NO ONE WAS SELLING AT EVEN 2000/- PER APPLICATION.
THIS IS WHAT HNIS/OPERATORS WANT THEY ARE SPREADING RUMOURS THAT THIS IS A GOOD IPO AND THERE IS A GOOD GREY MARKET PREMIUM. RETAIL PUBLIC BY SEEING GOOD GREY MARKET PREMIUM AND GOOD QIB NUMBERS(WHICH MAY BE FAKE OR INFLUENCED) GET TRAPPED BY APPLYING BLANK LONG APPLICATIONS IN SUCH LOSS MAKING FUNDAMENTALY POOR COMPANIES. SOME TIMES THE HNI/OPERATORS MAINTAIN THE LISTING PRICE FOR A WHILE, BUT THE MOTTO OF THEM IS TO TRAP THE PUBLIC SOONER THAN LATER.
PUBLIC KNOWS THIS, BUT STILL TAKES CHANCE ASSUMING THIS TIME THEY ARE RIGHT BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, THEY ARE THE MAXIMUM LOOSERS. SO I JUST WANTED TO WARN THEM EITHER NOT TO APPLY OR IF THEY WANT TO APPLY THEN BY HEDGING THE POSITION IN GREY MARKET.
STILL I WISH THAT THIS SHARE MAY LIST HIGH SO THAT PUBLIC CAN MAKE SOME MONEY BUT I KNOW THAT THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. IT WILL GIVE LESS THAN RS.1000 PER APPLICATION RETURN. MARK MY WORDS.
setuji,No seller even at Rs 15 in grey market because every one wants to see listing shots.Because response was the huge.Setuji you are lucky that you have collected shares of gppl at 7.50 Rs premium.Now nobody is selling it even at Rs 15 premium.You have doubled the premium for your clients.