After reading Draft for five hours. What I Concluded that Why shouldn''t I apply in this. Hence Decided to apply. Question is will you get Listing Gain
I will say Yes.
Iex was Avoid Godreg Must Apply Mas Listing Gain GIC Apply.
Now with GIC premium grew by 72% Isn''t is good? Govt is focusing on Financial Incrusions. Hecne valuation is ok ok Not High Not Discount. Bottom Line is low but with Global REins it''s even worse. All the claims loss are on Re INS company Hence it''s margin will be low.
It''s a monopoly Company but Peers as Risk of foregin co. Purely managed by Govt. Sound Growth Modi Govt is Bullish in this segment. It''s coming at 3.6-3.9X it''s Bv What''s else You Need.
Hence Go for it take Risk. What worse can happen it might list at 850/- Retail will get 17/- loss per share Govt is not fullish. It has Long Disinvestment plans. Lead Bankers are Smart. LIC SBI New India and Other PSU are sitting on huge cash. They govt won''t make it list at Discount. Retail will get at least 45/- Lollipop... New India Insurance HAL IRCTC NHAI Many More IPOs are lined for this Fiscal.
Go And Apply Loss on 2 Lac Application Max 3808/- Gain on 2 lac Application Min 8000/-
Long term Players Apply Blindly Definitely you will Get 1000/- next Year.
Grey Players have kept premium Very low. Ignore and Apply.
Financials are strong Promoter are good. Vision is Great. Company. Only Margins are low Arjun
Even I am Your Big Fan Hope you Avoided Iex on my advise And Applied Godreg and Mas. Book Profit in Mas. Godreg is good for Long term.
Pratap I Suggested to exit at 1300. Hence Great Profit for all.
GIC will be positive or par but Retail will get some money. Even if it''s in Deep discount Hold for some Time like we did in ICICI Prudential. Good Companies Over a Period of time will Reward Investor. GIC is slightly costly but then nothing is cheap. When Pratap a 9 Crore Profit Company can trade at 1300/- Can''t GIC 3840 Crore Company Trade at 900/- Vehicle And Two wheelers Data were amazing Hence Insurance Premium will also grow. IRDA watches all of them closely. Premium will still grow at 40% Everyone is aware now. Fire and Life Insurance are becoming part of Middle class with 130 Crore people in India Won''t Insurance biz grow at 18-20% Per annum. GIC is leader in India and 12th Largest in world. Operating more than 160 Country. Margins for Re INS Biz will always be low as they risk takers.
Nothing is cheap now Nifty is at 25-26X Times Earnings.
EPS for QTR 1 is 29.9 Even If we take 42/- EPS for FY 18 on conservative side. Assuming Monsoons will be lower than Avg. At 900/- is at 23X-25X Earnings of FY18 post issue
ICICI Lombard is 10X It''s Book and 35-40X it''s Earnings
Wonder why GMP is in discount as this IPO is fairly priced at PBV 3.7 and PE 25. Far better than SBI life insurance and ICICI Lombard.
The following points must be the reasons for negativity around this stock.
1) Decline in margin from 17 percent to 10 percent in last 3 years 2) Decline in combined ratio from 87 to 80. But they have maintained a good average combined ratio of 80 to 82 3) Crop insurance scheme promoted by government resulting in decline of margins. 4) Tepid top line and bottom line growth.
But all these should not impact in listing gains as valuation is not high as per present market situation. But not a long term bet for me.
Discount to retail investors gives enough room for listing gains.
221.9. gamble| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2017 12:01:10 AM
(1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)
Nice
, @krbji if there is no growth valuation of 30PE higher, 4PB higher imo, even lic hf trading below 3PB, 20PE with 18% healthy CAGR..... If you see in Psu segment then power grid has good(almost highest in psu segment) caGr of 15% and trading at 13 PE
Firstly we can''t compare hdfc bnk with sbi or Bob, Same gic comparison not possible with private or semi private player, Lombard can grow 4x,sbi life can grow 3x than gic re
Still if u forget that gic is psu firm then also it''s valued aggressively price given future growth.
... ............... . .gic.......Lombard...... Sbi life 2018 PE .... . 30............ 37..........55 2019 PE........30.............31...........48 2020 PE........ 29.............26..........42
Discount playing big role, 2L full application is maze here.
U are comparing LIC housing Finance with GIC Many HFC are Trading at 3-4 X
GIC is Insurance company LIC HF is Housing Finance company
Insurance Biz in Developing counties can command Higher PE and P/BV. As HFC CAGR is 6% in Last three year Avg. and Insurance Growing 17% Avg Last three year.
Many PSU are trading below 2 Times Book . Yes there are many PTC and PFC these are Power sector Company etc Hence you can''t say that GIC should be Below 912/-
I agree with Gamblji..In long term ICICI Lombard is the best option. Comparison of ICICI Lombard with GIC isn''t a banana vs apple comparison. Lower PAT CAGR than that of ICICI Lombard makes it a less attractive bet which cant be ignored.
But RII have nothing to worry because they will have a small lollipop to suck in case of 2/3 % Discount listing. Positive side is that The Combo Business Model May attract the QiBs on listing day to absorb the portion of RII/HIN & their hunger may make it a 2/3 % premium listing
So Apply ...Bt For Long Term Investment ICICI Lombard is the best alternative.
221.13. manjitsingh| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2017 8:35:12 AM
IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
Well analysis Arjun sir........ankitxyz every thing not ends at bottom line....if that is the case than prataap snacks not trade at 250 PE .......
221.14. gamble| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2017 9:02:02 AM
(1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)
Agree patelji insurance has high potential , let see if GiC can grow at industry CaGr(17%) or not because i doubt beling a PSU firm.
Majitji hm.. Bottom line just 1 parameter we have to see discount of 5% also!
Mkt is irrational, Every thing is possible.
If i M not wrong and by reading msgs here only 1 thing applicants(RII) of Gic seeing is ''''2L vs 10K net profit ''''
And Mkt generally not gives when most people wants!
ManjitJiii ... Prataap Is trading at estimated PE of 1255/10=125.5 & not at 250. It is Still in the correction mode. Wait & watch It will correct itself further.
221.16. manjitsingh| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2017 9:54:00 AM
IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
Ankitxyz 1250/5 =250 eps is 5rs not 10 rs.......shortly u will se pe of 1350/5 = 275.....
At Price to book of 3.89 as ompared to abt 8 of Icici lombard insurance and PE of 31 and Rs 45 discount to retail investor it is worth investing. Margin of safety very much there. May not hv listing gain if you r looking for but surely you will get really good return if you hold for about a year. Not for " bhajiya " khane walo ke liye.
215. Aniketiaf| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2017 6:30:33 AM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)
Godrej Agrovet allotment will be 2nd half of today . BEST OF LUCK TO ALL OF US.
agar ye ipo undersubsribe rahta h retail m to 1 lot lagauga low 855 pe taaki ye pta lag sake ki under subscription m low amt pe share alot hote h ya nhi
If the issue is over subscribe, and the company decide to issue shares at higher end, then, even though the retail cost is 45 rs less than max price, any one in retail applying below max price or below cutoff price, shall not get allottment, even though retail is under subscribe. I hope I have been able to make it clear. Retail must always apply at cutoff for best results specially where there is discount for retail.
jyada bada hone ke karn dimand low supply full rahega is liye gain kum he varna maximum subscribe hota or listng gain bhi karta, maximum customer gic me bharosa karte he(if option) or invester ka bhi bharosa dikhega is it true?
TABLE - Comparison of Net worth or Book value per share (real) (Figures in Rs. in crores) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Particulars GIC SBILife ICICILombard Capital 430 1000 451 Reserves 19539 4465 3274 Book value 19969 5465 3725 Fair value Change A/C 30037 88 175 book value after FVCA 50006 5553 3900 BV per share after FVCA 581 56 86 CMP/Issue price appox 912 690 685 Real price to book 1.57 12.32 7.97
* Source DRHP ** fair value Change account represent change between market value and book value of Investments. For example, GIC''s books are showing listed shares of Rs. 1000 and the market value of those shares as on 31.03.2017 was 5000, then FVCA will show 4000 balance.
Verdict : Hugh growth potential, Apply with full force, upto Rs. 2 Lac per app subject to availability to funds and individual appetite.
Note : I am not an agent of FINMIN, GIC or GOI. I will not get any brokerage from Lead Manager if this issues sails thriugh smoothly.
this Company is a real Gem. Actaul net worth at current market value is around Rs. 50000 crores and at Rs. 912 , it is seeking a market cap of appox rs. 80000 crores. This is really mind blowing.
Message for Mr. Septa ji. Respected Sir, I don''t know whether ason date you are in this forum or not. But i just wanted to convey my gratitude to you for guiding us through this platform during the last couple of years. I joined this platform in Jan.2017 only and really I was feeling comfortable for applying to ipos after going through your analysis. I salute you for your analysis on CL Educate, S Chand and Shankara Building among a few. Thank you once again, Sir.
211.1. Hari ji| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2017 1:49:31 AM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 400+ Likes)
@NPT you right we all very miss SEPTA SIR. please come If possible septa sir. But your absent some experts very help us like gamble sir, uchit sir, arjun sir chem cho sir, King vinod and other experts Thanks to all experts.
The trend of insurance IPOs shows that within a week time they are available to buy below issue price after listing. So it is better to watch after listing and buy from secondary market
COMPARE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS VALUATION OF GIC IS VERY HIGH. GLOBAL TOP 10 PLAYERS LIKE EVEREST RE, REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA, SWISS RE, PARTNER RE, HANNOVER RE AND MUNICH RE HAVE PE LESS THAN 10 AND PB OF 1 - 2.
208. Rkg| Link| Bookmark|
October 11, 2017 10:17:50 PM
Top Contributor (500+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
What is the maximum lot size for retail investors?
this will suck liquidity which may cause market to go down
207.1. NRI Investor| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2017 12:55:07 AM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 300+ Likes)
It won''t happen this time.
Because MF Managers r sitting with 50,000 crores of cash right now. If FII is keep selling since last 2 months, now they also slow down to 500 crores per day.
If FII will keep selling then MF can keep buying till next 3months at least. And IPO blocked money will be released in 6 days.
So, don''t worry about market fall down this time.