Were Little busy profit bookin in psu bnk,
Btw gic as expected turn out to be disaster,
All lic, 2L applications gone maze as predicted,
Let see if comes to my fair value 750 or not..
Anyone not take it personally, this type wrong decision will come and go, forget and let''s try to improve ourselves with some lesson
Refer????
35. gamble Oct 8, 2017 7:15:34 PM IST Reply
General Insurance Corporation of India IPO
............ GiC - The big boy........
Slogan - आपत्काले रक्षिष्यामि
Ratings
: A - '''''''' Excellent '''''''' by AM best(a USA rating firm)
: AAA by CARE
.... ... PRESIDENT(The Promoter) diluting 14.5% shares in this offer which brought @25 Paisa per share !!
..... GiC Premium growth in segment like motor, fire, marine etc increased 5-10% over last 3 yr, But strangely agricultural premium climed from 544 cr to 9073 cr( Thanks to present govt!)
PAT caGr = 6%(last 5yr),
......... .... 4%(last 3yr)
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@867 rs(RII price)
2017 EPS 36.52 => PE =24 (good!)
But,.... but,..... but
2018 EPS 29.24(mentioned in RhP, low due to FY18Q1 lower profit)
=> PE =29.7
NAV(BV) on june 2017 = 234.22 rs,
=> P/B ratio = 3.7x
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No comparable peers, but somewhat similar businesses like lombard
.... Firstly u can''''t compare directly with private firm(lombard), so here hudco(just for fun)(HF psu player) taken along with a lombard for better understanding
............ ...... GiC............. Lombard.......... Hudco
PAT caGr..... 4%. ................ 16%.............4.5%
PB(2018...... 3.8................... 7.8...............1.8
PE(2018....... 30.....................37................20
Concl frm above table :
1) lombard growing 4x then GiC, plus it''''s private firm so PE, PB commendable should be high obviously , imo should be 2-3 times, hence GiC is not cheaper then lombard (imo)
2) Buy HudCo at CMP(83) for better gain then GiC over a yr, available at much comfortable level
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...... GiC''''s 2018 yr gonna give it 1-2% CAGR over 3 yr(not good!), Expected PAT Lower then 2017
.... Ronw also seeing step back
........ ..2015......2016.......2017...... 2018
........... 19%........16.2%.... ..16%.......12.4%
...... Imo being a Wholly owned by government firm and FLAT growth , 30 PE, 4PB is
# fully priced.
If ipo comes at price of 25PE my views would hv different
i.e 25*29.4 = 735(15% less) [My Fair value]
.. ...... RII full allotment is confirmed(11.7K cr issue man!) , many decided to apply for max application i.e 2L (after seeing sbilife 5% listing gain) but i suggest to think twice abot that!!!
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Concl...
Being a PSU firm and discussed parameters above, issue seems to b fully price,
My view :
- Avoid or
- Apply with sell in kostak, subject to or
- subscribe for Atleast 1.5 yr
...... If want earn more than GiC over medium term then U may Prefer stock given on sbi life thread, or
Buy hudco at CMP or BuY lombard at CMP or even u can buy sbi life after some corrections
.. If u already decided firmly to apply then go ahead, as per current grey u can earn 2-3% on listing(on 867rs)
....... GiC should hv come up with ipo earlier, why this much delay, and why suddenly came up frm nowhere ????
Note : Above all views/recommendations are my personal opinions, take decision only as per ur personal opinions ????
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