M.cap Post-issue : 3088 cr PAT FY 23 : 302.3 cr PE : 10.21
FY 24 TTM Basis : PAT - 519.5 cr PE - 5.94
FY 24 Expected Earnings as per my Expectations : Revenue - 4300 cr PAT - 560 cr PE - 5.51
Also Keep One very Interesting Thing in Mind that ESAF SFB Keeps its Provisioning at much higher rate than Notified by RBI It's Provisioning is highest in the SFB industry So It's PAT is much higher than what it is visible
To be Very Honest It's a 6000 cr Company which is coming at a Valuation of 3100 cr
The Fair Price Per share On EPS of FY24 is : EPS Fe FY24 - 10.88 /- So Fair Price at A PE of 10.5 on Current Metrics comes at Rs.114
If The Provisions are reduces it will cross 130 But we are not interested is " Ye Hoga to Woh Hoga " , we are interested in what's kept on the table to Grab Upon 😉
If everyone remembers I had suggested to apply in Utkarsh SFB for ONLY LISTING GAINS. And you know the rest story
Here I would recommend to Subscribe for Good Listing Gains GMP Suggests around 30-35% gains but I am expecting 40% Then Book Maximum And Then Enter the stock on Dips again at a Level of around 75 and Hold for 115
Only 3 Concerning points which are not big but do exist
1.It has to Pay Royalty Of 0.3% of revenue to a NPO For next 12 more years Which is around 15 cr in FY24 , around 3% of Net Profit
2 .72% app. Revenue from South India and 45% in Kerala . Just to state but nothing serious
3.75.5% Of its portfolio comprises Unsecured Loans but Yes they have a Vast experience of 35 years and good collection Positioning
I wouldn't list Positives it would go beyond 10
But If anyone is interested in Allotment and Happy with 20-25% listing gains then Protean and ASK would be a great option Also You could buy ESAF in Normal Market post listing
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst This Is Just for Knowledge Purposes Consult your Investment Advisor before taking any Decision 😀
Jokes Aside
WILL POST FINAL VERDICT TOMORROW 1PM Applying Is certain
118.2. MuStrFc| Link| Bookmark|
November 6, 2023 1:14:24 PM
IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 1000+ Likes)
@newgen consultancy Sir, to add to your pointers, the current RoA along with its ROE brings it closer to Ujjivan and Utkarsh, but since P/B is lower that gives ESAF an outright edge. The only issue i perceive is one of the lesser known Brand in the Upper Half of the country, and next the exposure in rural and unsecured segment and fluctuations in costs to acquire customers.
Already applied FF, i.e. 4 bhni. But @newgen consultancy sir, this helps as usual. You and many others on CG are the unofficial investment advisors and guide for many of us. Continue the good work.
111. pRACE| Link| Bookmark|
November 6, 2023 5:20:03 PM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
As ESAF will be last day tomorrow i.e. 07 nov, as usual we can get allotment by 08 nov 11pm, shares credited 09 nov, so listing possible on 10 November Friday??
Today's subscription figures till now is very interesting. No doubt a medium size IPO. From all categories of investors subscription on a good side. One more day is left. GMP in CG is going bit down in good market conditions. Not bad, about 30%. Financials not bad. Sector is difficult one. For listing gains, there may not be any doubt. Medium to long-term after listing and market conditions. No need to hurry. Allotment will be difficult in sHNI. Better chances in Retail but who cares to apply in Retail? Funds are in account then why not sHNI. Investors don't believe in "SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING". I am applying in Retail and sHNI.
1st Question:Wanted to understand the allotment logic in bHNI.
2nd Question: Which one is preferred? 1. 2 sHNI 2. 1 bHNI & 1 sHNI
3rd Question: How many lots to apply in bHNI, would applying to >67 lots makes sense, or should I stick to 67 lots only?
104.1. CoolAsh| Link| Bookmark|
November 6, 2023 1:00:03 PM
Top Contributor (500+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
bHNI would always be preferred so option 2 is better for sure. > 67 lots makes sense only if bHNI is undersubscribed else whether you make a 10 lakhs application or a 50 lakhs application, it will make no difference to your chances
Crow Verdict: I'm not a fan of the sector nor do I dig the unsecured loans market, which is growing at a break-neck speed and may fall soon to break necks and beaks. Not to mention Kerala businesses are fraught with issues and I do not invest in them. However, ESAF has priced the IPO attractively and I see good listing gains on Nov 9. I will apply for listing gains and forget because allotment will be tough.
Crow's skin in the game: 3 retail applications regardless of QIB.
Crow's last APPLY recommendation: Cello World (28% listing pop and currently up 23%).