Endurance Technologies Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 44)

Welcome eagleye mam. What is your calculation about HNI oversubscription and there after gmp is difficult to understand for all members. So please write current gmp and what will be the direction of gmp.

Eagle eye pls....let me know how about buying icici prudential and advance enzymes and rbl bank..which one is best...

EagleEye pls..tell now will u stay or again leave....also how much u expecting Endurance will be subscribed in retail...applicationwise

Welcome back eagleye.

Pls keep updating GMP of endurance technology.

As you regularly updated in past.

Thanks

JUST A WARNING I AM PERENNIAL BULL WHEN COMES TO AUTO SECTOR SO TAKE CARE AND INVEST
MY FAIR VAULE IS AROUND 478 WITH 25% MIS THE PRICE RIGHT NOT MUCH LEFT IF YOU APPLY MIS
I HAVE TAKEN 12% TO 8% NP GROWTH..... IF YOU LOOK AT LAST YEAR NP GROWTH IS AROUND 15% CAGR is around
8% this is lower because one year profit drop in double digit not sure what happened in that year was it re call of product or capital or revenue expenditure .
The more i read i am getting more bullish with this IPO.

ALSO 1ST QUARTER RESULT IS ALSO GOOD IT IS WEAK QUARTER FOR AUTO INDUSTRY HOWEVER COMPARE TO YOY IT HAS SHOWN IMPROVEMENT

ALSO THE MANAGEMENT IS VERYGOOD

I HAVE NO ISSUE WITH 720 CR DEBT THE CA RATIO IS BELOW .7
ALSO I HAVE NO WORRY IN REGARDS WITH 100% OFS THE PROMOTERS HAVE BEEN LONG IN THIS BUSINESS CLOSE TO 30 YEARS SO SELLING IS NOT A ISSUE


Initial Cash Flow:      $2,92,00,00,000                   
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      12%      8%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      5%            Discount Rate:      10%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      14,06,62,848             Margin of Safety:      25%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      3,27,04,00,000       12%      $2,97,30,90,909       
2      3,66,28,48,000       12%      $3,02,71,47,107       
3      4,06,57,61,280       11%      $3,05,46,66,627       
4      4,47,23,37,408       10%      $3,05,46,66,627       
5      4,91,95,71,149       10%      $3,05,46,66,627       
6      5,36,23,32,552       9%      $3,02,68,96,930       
7      5,84,49,42,482       9%      $2,99,93,79,685       
8      6,31,25,37,880       8%      $2,94,48,45,509       
9      6,81,75,40,911       8%      $2,89,13,02,863       
10      7,36,29,44,184       8%      $2,83,87,33,720       
                        
                        
Terminal Year      $7,73,10,91,393                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $29,86,53,96,605       
                        
Terminal Value:                  $59,61,34,08,130       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $89,47,88,04,735       
                        
Number of Shares:                  14,06,62,848       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $636.12       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                  $477.09       
                        
What Percentage of IV comes from                   67%      
the Terminal Value:                        

good analysis by Septa ji. Endurance Technologies Ltd IPO is an apply

Thanks Sir. Applied after your analysis.

Welcome back Eagle eye

Welcome back Septa Ji & Eagleye Mam. We missed you so much...

Welcome back Eagle eye

ok consider next yr bv 136 roe 25 percent and its present value around rs 570 so i will apply bt have to watch qib figures bt listing price not judged

Finally what''s the conclusion?
what is the risk /reward analysis?

what is next year book value and roe next yr ?

SEPTA SIR PLEASE GIVE INTRISTIC VALUE

CA Sahib the fair value is close to the issue price so they have price to the max. So listing gain will be limited however given the quality of the promoters Rahul Bajaj Nephew and 30 years old business market will lap it even at this price. I am applying this IPO

Endurance Technologies IPO

for HNIs ... Funding is available @4%

Even if over-subscription is 150X
costing will be approx 54.31

So, in that case... how is GMP @70 justified ??
It has to come down ...

Welcome back mam....welcome back...

Hey just newbie here. Very very heartily welcome Eagleeye. I haven''t met them personally, but the pattern by which you and septa sir are analyzing the data, seems highly interesting. I gonna learn a lot from you fellas.

Let me know if I can be of any help

What will be listing gains?

Company…...Fair…..CMP…..Premium…..Market Cap (Rs Crores)
Motherson….172……328…...1.91………..46000
Bharat For….417……924…...2.22………..21500
Mahindra C…86…….204…...2.37…….…..6630
Endurance….304…...472……1.55………...6400~
Gabriel………92…….121…...1.31………...1730
Rico Auto……60…….65…….1.08…………874
Munjal Sho….285…...207…...0.73…...……833

Endurance is coming with premium of 1.55 times its fair value which makes it cheaper than Motherson Sumi, Bharat Forge and Mahindra CIE

If compared with Gabriel, Rico Auto and Munjal Showa, Endurance looks expensive

Now, it depends on what premium is market ready to give to Endurance. At average premium of 1.6 times, Endurance fair price comes to Rs 485

Fair Price Calculation:-
(((B*2)+(E*18)+(D/0.015))/3)*RONW
Where,
B=Book Value per share
E=Earnings per share
D=Dividend per share
RONW=Return on net worth
Where dividend is not declared by the company in a financial year, it is not taken for calculation e.g. in case of Mahindra CIE the formula will be divisible by 2 to take average of 2 prices
Assumption:-
1)      Historical average of 2 times book is applied
2)      Historical average of 18 times to earnings is applied
3)      Historical average of 1.5% of dividend yield is applied

Pl. Do not compare endurance with motherson sumi.Motherson has a much higher netprofit margin, sales, premium product range etc etc.ET can b compared with gabriel

Mann Ki Baat: What are the fair values of the shares which came in the IPO market in the last one year? Do they give any indication about the current market price?

Bse + Nse subscribtion :

Qib : .04

Hni : .02

Retail : .2082

Total : .12

12% subscribe

Ipo kitna bhara aaj.

At least I am seeing the QIB and HNI subscribing in this IPO on day one in a small way. This shows the interest of these two categories. Out of 24,613,024 Equity Shares, 7,383, 906 shares have already been allotted to anchor investors. It seems to be the good IPO.

I am applying in this IPO.

By looking at current situations between India and Pakistan, anyone suggest to be on safe side and remain on cash as anytime market may crash if there is any bad news on this matter.

Any dips at present is an buying opportunity. Yesterday rate cut will help to get market upwards.

But what if situation get worse between India and Pakistan? When there was news on Surgical strike BSE was down 400+.