I Have kept very liberal growth rate more then the company actual achieved still i am getting a Fair value of Rs 200 at 25% MOS
Compare to it peers at 219 is already price however given it support from ruling party and BJP is planning for big road project one can apply however upside will be limited at least it is profit making company with big future however risk is high in plain vanilla term better option is available in secondary market....
Initial Cash Flow: $1,46,00,00,000
Years: 1-5 6-10
Growth Rate: 60% 40%
Terminal Growth Rate: 5% Discount Rate: 9%
Shares Outstanding: 25,39,05,000 Margin of Safety: 25%
Debt Level:
Year Flows Growth Value
1 1,67,90,00,000 15% $1,54,03,66,972
2 1,91,40,60,000 14% $1,61,10,26,008
3 2,18,20,28,400 14% $1,68,49,26,284
4 2,44,38,71,808 12% $1,73,13,00,401
5 2,73,71,36,425 12% $1,77,89,50,871
6 3,06,55,92,796 12% $1,82,79,12,822
7 3,43,34,63,931 12% $1,87,82,22,349
8 3,77,68,10,325 10% $1,89,54,53,747
9 4,15,44,91,357 10% $1,91,28,43,231
10 4,56,99,40,493 10% $1,93,03,92,251
Terminal Year $4,79,84,37,517
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: $17,79,13,94,935
Terminal Value: $50,67,27,96,589
Total PV of Cash Flows: $68,46,41,91,525
Number of Shares: 25,39,05,000
Intrinsic Value (IV): $269.64
Margin of Safety IV: $202.23
What Percentage of IV comes from 74%
the Terminal Value: