Debt to Equity more than 3.5 and negative free cash flow for past years are sufficient for me not to apply for this IPO...and i dont like space such as high competition and huge capital intensity ..surely there is no moat for this company...So No from me...
131. Eagleye| Link| Bookmark|
July 27, 2016 2:05:13 PM
IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 22000+ Likes)
Hello, I have been following this forum since alkem ipo..but never texted anybody here ..i have to say this is really genuine group of people.. It is nice to have your advices. I had applied in l&t infotech ipo..nd got alloted ...now should i take loss or hold it.. I have 300 shares of Tata global beverages @142...what could be the future..? Any good stock to invest for short or mid term?
It will really be helpful....if you guide ... Thanks
I will add one more thing....the smaller the company, the relatively easier it is to maintain & grow its order book. So, a small cap is preferable ....but there are two prerequisits: (1) a clean b/s &; (2) it should be strong enough to independently bid for projects & therefore not overly dependent on sub-contracts from larger players...
The most vigorous phase in the life cycle of a construction company is, I think, when it graduates from a tiny/small cap to mid cap.
Most of the domestic MFs and Insurance companies are avoiding the issue (confirmed with them), hence chances of very less subscription in QIB quota. It may even under-subscribe if couple of MFs (which are planning to apply) pull out at last minute.
Read my earlier comments for the reasons to avoid the IPO:
103. Chakri Ideas Jul 26, 2016 1:07:10 PM IST Reply My view on Dilip Buildcon:
1) Low margin: Though EBITDA margin is high @20-21%, EBIT margin is at lower level due to higher depreciation resulting from higher fixed assets as the company owns almost all of its equipments. 2) Weak Balance Sheet: It has higher debtor days and inventory days, resulting in stretched balance sheet. 3) Leverage: Current D/E is 2.3x. It will raise Rs 400cr from fresh equity out of which Rs 200cr would be used to pare debt resulting in better D/E of 1.45x. However, the company will have to infuse Rs 600cr in its BOT projects in next 3 years, again increasing D/E. 4) Politically exposed: The promoter of the company is close to BJP government in MP. His name has also cropped-up in Vyapam case. This makes it politically exposed.
Hence, I would avoid the IPO.
127. gamble| Link| Bookmark|
July 27, 2016 8:15:56 AM
(1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)
I was intrigued with what the company has achieved in such a short span. But, the ''end'' should be judged with the ''means'' used to achieve it. If I invest, I will be directly rewarding the corrupts.
The promoter has close ties to alleged murderers....was found with 1,000 Cr unaccounted cash....many secret files pertaining to govt officials, projects etc were found in various raids conducted at his place...I stopped scouring for more dirt after reading these!
Dilip Buildcon’s (DBL) high order book and standalone revenue CAGR over FY11-15 (53%/ 57%) has not yielded sufficient cash (cum. pre-tax CFO/EBITDA of 40%). Higher-than-industry receivable and inventory days result in industry-leading cash conversion cycle (112 days). Whilst growth prospects appear strong, we are surprised and uncertain of sustainability of industry-high EBITDA margins (FY15: 22% vs 10-14% for peers); meaningful unwinding of working capital is unlikely given changes in NHAI payment rules hence standalone debt/ equity (FY15: 2.5x vs <0.8x for peers) poses risks to net margins. IPO proceeds should help reduce debt but equity will be needed to fund the recently won NHAI BOT project (`3bn needed). Corporate governance concerns emanate from pending litigations against promoters and media articles suggesting political connectivity and questionable behavior.
Competitive position: MODERATE Changes to this position: STABLE
A fast growing contractor with a burgeoning order book DBL’s order book has remarkably elevated at >50% CAGR over FY11-15 and DBL now ranks amongst the largest road EPC contractors in India (Sep-15 book of `103bn). Though its book-to-bill is only marginally above peer average, its order book to net worth is materially higher (10x). An analysis of orders won from NHAI indicates that DBL has bid well below NHAI’s indicative cost. Revenue CAGR of 57% over FY11-15 is well ahead of peers.
Strong order book, but can the balance sheet support it? DBL’s inventory and receivable days are well above peers. So, its cash conversion has been less than ideal (pre-tax CFO/EBITDA: 38% over FY11- 1HFY16) and leverage is higher (2.5x D/E in FY15 vs 0.2-0.8x for peers). Bulk of IPO proceeds of up to `4.3bn will be utilized to retire debt and fund working capital. Internal accruals will need to increase materially to fund its new large NHAI BOT project (`3bn of equity required).
High margins weighed down by interest cost DBL’s 2x peer-set margins are driven primarily by superior gross margins. Given road dependence (standard NHAI jobs, high competition, limited sourcing advantages), limited scope of bonus claims and high dependence on sub-contracting, we find margins too high. High standalone leverage and finance cost (15% of average debt in FY15) have rendered PAT margins in line with peers, maintaining high risk to net margins.
Reduced IPO size; no progress in leverage, cash, corporate governance Reduced fund-raise of `4.5bn from `6.3bn has lowered fresh funds into the company more than for exiting investors/promoters. We believe money raised from minorities should be used to strengthen the balance sheet or protect from future shocks of growth, margins, and cash (very frequent in this industry).
"""""" Valuation should be at discount to peers for corporate governance issues
DILIP BUILDCON LTD. - IPO Analyst Meet, held at The Taj, Colaba on 25/07/16 :
On-the-Spot Takeaways :
The Background:
â— The business was started by Dilip Suryavanshi in the late 80s. Dilip Buildcon Ltd was incorporated in 2006. â— DBL has a total Order Book of Rs.17500 cr, their projects span 12 states as on 31st March 2016. â— 85% of the projects are in the Roads segment. â— 90% of the orders are from the Govt, especially NHAI.
Whats unique about them:
â— DBL does not Sub-contract any work at all. â— They are a fully vertically integrated player, using ONLY their own equipment, owned by them. â— They have one of the largest equipment banks in the country totalling 7345 vehicles. â— Almost 20000 employees working full time, of which 14000 are drivers and operators. â— Are preferred clients of some of the largest names in the global equipment space such as Schwing Stetter, Wirtgen, Vogele. According to them they are Ashok Leyland''s biggest client in India. â— This large equipment bank from a select few global brands help them maintain quality, execution speed and lower maintenance costs. â— This also helps in quick turnaround increasing equipment utilisation rate. â— Their execution is mostly ahead of schedule helping them earn nearly Rs.200 cr annually out of "Early Completion Bonus". â— This large pool of equipment and employees helps them save costs by sharing manpower across projects and also through co-locating projects.
The Team and teamwork :
â— 20000 employees â— Constant training on new and old equipment. â— Facilities such as Family Medical Insurance and Daughters'' Marriage Allowance of upto 2 lakhs. â— This has arrested attrition among the drivers to a large extent.
Other key points of importance :
â— With best in the class equipment, the average life of their assets is 8-10 years as against 3-4 years of the other players. â— Apart from the EPC portfolio DBL has a BOT portfolio with a debt of less than Rs.1150 cr in these. â— Annuity inflows from these exceed Rs.200 cr per annum. â— The residual life of these BOT projects are around 12 years. â— DBL has the lowest Annual Maintenance Cost per Kilometre of road at Rs.16,000 per km per annum, 84% lesser than the maximum of Rs.100,000 per km per annum prescribed by the NHAI.
Higher Margins compared to peers : DBL lays claim to higher margins as compared to its peers for the following reasons :
â— No sub-contracting so inflows are fully retained. â— Regular "Early Completion Bonus" helps increase margins by upto 2%. â— They are the largest clients of HPCL, BPCL and IOC for sourcing Bitumen, so they enjoy good bargaining power on costs. â— Being among the biggest users of equipment from Caterpillar, Wirtgen, Schwing Stetter and Ashok Leyland, DBL enjoys lower maintenance costs.
The Road Ahead :
â— High margins will not come dow anytime soon. â— Last year''s (2015-16) top line growth of 56% may not be sustainable, but the focus is more on quality than quantity. â— Standalone debt is at around Rs.2513 cr with a D/E of 2.51. This will fall to 2.27 in the current year. â— The Working Capital Cycle has been reduced from 181 days to 136 days and can be brought down to around 110 days.
The company & it''s promoter have amassed a huge wealth through nexus with politicians & bureaucrats. The blood money has fuelled a vigorous growth in this (company) money laundering machine....
There is not an iota of doubt about its promoter''s lack of integrity. I can see so many news articles exposing their shenanigans.
The company''s business model is interesting in some ways but their shady past might catch up with their future.
Well said bro. As said earlier talking about this company is doubting own intelligence. Not worth a company to invest in. As said a few days ago, I m not applying and so would be advice to others. Again, well put up point.