The collection period is 8 months for Thomas Cook so 10 months for Cox & kings so this is standard practice for the industry.These cos do the booking in advance for the season to get max discounts and solid profit margins.
I had availed r competitors DPal for malaysia /singapore / penang & was simply zapped by nos of indians I saw there.It seemed that entire India right from Jharkhand to Kerala was vacationing.SO undoubtedly huge growth potential is there in this sector.This could easily enjoy the scarcity premium.
Further unlike NHPC IPO where there were few dissentors Not asingle analyst report is un favorable.Even aconservative analyst like capitalmarket has given it a rating of 50.
The negative cud be the large market cap of 2000 crores while sales is in the range of 300 crores & alrge no of FIIs who had got in at 91 are exiting their 60% holdings.
Unfortunately I have to say that boarders have become selfish by trying to misguide gullible investors. Some unknown names mop up the funds and like CNK would struggls to sustain issue price is what so called expert boarders are preaching. Beware of them guys, invest for your own good. Hold NHPC & adani. People who want to exit on listing only to think twice. Investors from medium term view should grab this.
As earlier i have told in the Indiabull Power and NHPC regarding listing. Same thinhg will happen to Cox & King. It will list around 198/- - 225/-. Listing around 40% discount so that investor may loss maximum as in NHPC and Indiabulls there was very less loss. So Guaranteed listing around 198/- - 225/-.
Happy losing to all like NHPC and Indiabulls Power
To me this issue seems fairly priced. Manoj has come up with very nice analysis which most retail investors do not pay attention to. I have not decided upon applying as of now but I feel that I will take quite some time for Manoj's target of 220 to be achieved. As of now I can say that if the market does not see a major correcting till listing Investors who apply for listing gains will not lose money. There is at least Rs 40 - 50 to be made on listing.
One can apply for long term and also for listing gains.
You said "Everything looks good till above information (2008-09 figures) as we can see P/E seems to be about 14.2 to 14.9 at lower band(316) & upper band respectivly(330) for FY09". However, everything is not looking good: -
The company demands price-earnings multiple of 12 if we annualise its June’ 09 quarter net profit. This number may be misleading since the company has shown abrupt jump in the June quarter profit, which is two-thirds of its FY’ 09 profit. It is difficult to ascertain whether this momentum would continue in future.
This suggests that the offer price is not cheap leaving limited scope for appreciation in the near-term. Thus, investors with a long-term perspective may consider the IPO with stop-loss in the IPO price band of 330-316.
Here is my Personal Technical Analysis on Cox & Kings Issue after reading Draft Pospectus thoroughly.
2008-2009 Figures: Consolidated PAT : 62.76 crore Consolidated Net Value of Assets :227.94 crore No of issued shares till Mar 2009 :2.79 crore Consolidated EPS :22.18 Cosolidated Book Value per share : 81.62
Everything looks good till above information as we can see P/E seems to be about 14.2 to 14.9 at lower band(316) & upper band respectivly(330) for FY09
But important point is that company issued fresh equity of 1.95 crores on 23rd July 09 after 09 accounting period was over through Rights issue in ratio of 7:10 at Par value only (10 Rs). By Doing so 2.79 cores shareholders till march 2009 were awarded 1.95 crores fresh shares & that with issue price at Par value which is Rs 10.This process have following implications which is not mentioned in draft prospectus & I have derived myself.
Networth : 227.94 + 19.5 = 247.44 crore (Increased by 19.5 crore because of money recieved from rights issue)
EPS : 13.24 Book value per share :52.20 We can see EPS as well as Book value both have decreased substantially after rights issue.
P/E FY09 with new values will be 23.86 to 24.92 Offered Price is 6 * Bookvalue
Present Fresh issue of 1.54 crores share will dilute EPS further to Rs 10 which will bring P/E FY09 to 31.6 & 33 at lowerband & upperband respectively.
With Raising of 486.64 crore at lower band & 508.20 crore at upper band company can reduce their debt burden & invest in new subsidaries.With this I think company can increase their profit to 80 crore for FY10.EPS will be around 12.73 ,With this assumption still P/E for FY10 comes out to be 24.80 - 25.90.
Conclusion : Will not recommend to invest with high P/E value,low book value,Competion with Thomas Cook & SOTC.
Would have been good offer if rights issue at par value(10 Rs) have not been offered & which would have changed things substantially.It can prove spoilsport for this issue.
Disclaimer : Not applying in issue with current price range but can invest in future if it goes below 220.