SJ u are correct it does not appear attractive valuation wise which is most important criteria . ACE is a decent bet.
Sj/Gem Sreedhar n other friends What shud i do with my following which have been laggards - NHPC - 3i infotech - Firstsource - SJVN - Royal Orchid hotels - Patel Engg - MIC Electonics - TRIL - Hyderabad Ind - Modison - Infinite Computers
221. Sj| Link| Bookmark|
October 3, 2010 10:45:49 AM
(400+ Posts)
Dear KK
I hope you have forgiven me.
KK While the Brand Name is good coz my Brother who had spare parts business and Now has Construction Equipment like Excavtor and Cranes agency of Hyundai for North East Region.......used to have brouchre of Cebeeco.....spare parts also....!!
But 33 PE For Construction Equipment...
Man.........I fainted there only...!!!
If you see its profit figure that is also funny....
1 year profit went down 90% compared to last year and in the next year profits rose 1000%..
Wow what Stability......in Earnings...?
Now as i have said before to many boarders
Business Cycle Recovery after recession is divided into three phases:
In the First Phase Consumer Business Picks Up
Then Second phase businesses like Metals Autos pick Up
In the thrid Phase the CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CYCLE PICKS UP
We are in the third phase where CAPEX CYCLE OF COMPANIES WILL NOW PICK UP
So CAPITAL GOODS CONSTUCTION AND RELATED BUSINESSES ENGINEERING WILL NOW FLOURISH...!! IN THE THIRD PHASE...
THATS WHY L&T IS NOW PICKING MOMENTUM IN STCOK PRICE. DONT BE SUPRISED NOW TO SEE IT AT 3000 IN NEXT 6 MONTHS
Now instead of CEBECOO that is into Construction Equipment Space
You can buy listed peers that few people know or analyst reports dont highlight.
These two alternatives are:
1) ACE (Action Construction Equipment) ---------------------------------------------------------------------
Available at 8-9 PE it is India's first brand now known worldwide for its wide fleet of Excavators and other Equipments. it is lowest cost producer of Excavators and customer service is also good if you compare with other Indian Manufacturers in same space which are Unlisted like Tatas L&T etc. etc.
It is also giving serious competition to Chinese Companies now who are bombarding Indian markets with cheap priced Excavators Dumpers etc.
Available at 19 P.E. This is a well known company with 1500+ fleet of Cranes that it lends out to rent to Government and other Companies for Construction work.....
They charge 15000 per hour average rent. You can imagine how high growth business this is. The cost of a crane that is 40 lakhs to 10 crores as well which they recover in 2-3 years....by paying off loan of crane by renting it out....
This is also an awesome business model
Know KK and other boarders may might as well ask why it is lying low..? As far as valuations Go...?
Two Reasons:---
a) CAPEX cycle as explained by me is now picking up.
b) In rainy season Machines are not bought by companies for their work from these people as there is no use on ground in rain in briges roads etc. and hence business will now boom in the peak season for Construction Equipment Companies that is October to March Quarter....before next rainy season
Now KK if Sanghvi Movers available at 19 PE and ACE available at 9 PE
Who will buy this .....CEBEECOO...Crap at 33 PE which has profits gown down 90% one year only to increase 1000% next year......LOL..
How do i know technical stuff...
Coz i had helped my brother that i mentioned above in setting up the franchise of Hyundai from Feb-July 2009 and also went for business trip to South Korea to HYundai's plants in Busan and cities of ZONGZU....and Seoul
That pic of mine that you mentioned from Myspace...is in a riverside restraunt and pub of Hyundai (most of South Korea is Hyundai) of our 2 week long tour of South Korea's farewell party.
So dump this CEBECCOO CRAP and Buy ACE (ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT) and Sanghvi Movers.
Excerpts from todays Business Line about CEBBCO public issue: "Investors with a low to medium risk appetite need not subscribe to the offer. At the upper end of the price band of Rs.125-127, the offer is priced at about 36 times FY10 earnings and 28 times expected FY11 earnings on a post-issue equity base. Titagarh Wagons, a company focussed on heavy equipment and railway wagon manufacture, trades at a forward PE of about 11 times.... ...Given that the company is a relatively new entrant to the railway business and does not have any orders in hand for rolling stock, investors would be better off buying the shares in the secondary market when the earnings from this source become more visible". Applying this to the CAPITAL PROTECTION THEORY of GEM it is a clear avoid.
2. Gem ipo finder Sep 29, 2010 8:15:28 AM IST Report Spam FIRST LOOK AT CEBBCO:-
BUSINESS :-
produceS vehicle and locomotive bodies for diverse applications for road and railways transportation.one of the leading designers and manufacturers in India of vehicle bodies for the commercial vehicles with an extensive portfolio of product offerings. also conduct refurbishment of railway wagons as well as manufacturing of components for railway wagons, coaches and locomotives.
FINANCIALS:
fy'10 sales = 196.81 crores , pat = 19.2, crores, eps = 3.5, asking pe @ 127 is 36 times fy'10 eps, nw = 223 crores, bv = 40 ( based on post ipo scenerio & 2010 financilas)
in fy'10 out of total sales, rs 121 crores came from vechiele body building and 50 crores from raiways.
CONCLUSION:-
ITS A DIRECT AUTO PLAY.......... CAN BE CATAGARISED AS AUTO ANCILIARY CO, BUT THE CO DONT THINK SO.... ASKING OF 35 TIMES IS WAY WAY HIGHER....... CO SAYS NO LISTED PEER.......
IF POSSIBLE AVOID...... OR WAIT FOR FURTHER DEVLOPMENT.I WILL AVOID IT FOR SURE.
ORDER BOOK:-
As of July 15, 2010, Order Book in the commercial vehicles division was Rs. 5,255.39 million and in the railways division was Rs. 981.55 million. total stands at 623 crores, which is more than 3 times fy '10 sales.
SJ, Yes I think we can wait for 10 more days.Thats enough time.I do not think there is any harm in waiting for 10 days.I think they will do it becos it is already working in greymarket premium discussion board. I think even we are indebted to Chittorgarh for providing us a platform to make so many friends. BTW I sold half of my holdings at 60 & rest stop loss triggered at 50 & 45.So could make only 2.3 K per application.its OK.Every scrap will not give the same return.
2 new issues r opening on 6-8th october , chittorghar has not yet updated it...... moneycontrol shows it ....... plzz expert give ur opinion in advance so , that we can manage money.......
I thought of asking that question also, I will try to buy some shares at opening seconds after seeing buyers and sellers, probably I will see at your price of 240+.