Coal India Limited IPO Message Board (Page 153)

when kostak and grey market they are to buy at 4000/00 and above on application of 1 lakh
allottement 200 shares and premium may be 40.00 per share
after all god is grate
this is my calculation

AnupM,
This is a disinvestment by Govt. Not a single paise is raised by the company.

afternoon 0.50% subscription . evening o.33 % this is a game...chaddi utarrrr jayegiiii

Watch for some more insight into Coal India.
http://www.sharekhan.tv/safari/

Quoting Comment by 1149. Anonymous
" Coal India is sitting on a pile of cash worth ~~ Rs.35000 Crores.
In the near future, it hopes to tap into international markets and import cheap coal to bridge the demand and supply gap. Thats how it is going to utilize the 35000 crores."

I am really surprised that when companies like Coal India has so much money in cash, why they come to the market to collect cash
through IPO ?? I guess, one of the reason is that they won't need to pay interest. What else ?

FOR GREY MARKET DEALS CONTACT :: 09319270054

1162,

i am also facing the same problem...

Can any1 advise- not abl to complte order on hdfcsec now. Is it only possble durin stock markt hours or even later

From Equitymaster to its clients:::

A lot of hype surrounds the Coal India IPO, which opened today for subscription. Investment bankers and brokers are falling over each other to offer reasons why they believe this IPO will be a game changer for the Indian markets. In short, huge expectations have been built around this IPO, which can turn out to be dangerous if the company were to fail to deliver on these expectations in the future.

We last saw such hype around an IPO way back in January 2008. But then the company offering its shares had nothing more to show to investors than a business plan. Coal India (CIL), on the other hand, is a well-established company and a near monopoly in its own right. But even that does not mean that you go all out and apply to the IPO as if there's no tomorrow.

Given the kind of euphoria that surrounds this IPO, there are big chances that the listing gains can be good (also as promised by its chairman recently!). But we believe that you must not apply to an IPO, like you must never buy a stock, just speculating on short term returns. It is important to study the company well before you apply to its shares. And CIL, despite its size, government backing and, long history, is no exception.

As WSJ says with respect to this IPO - “Go with your headlamps on!”

WILL LIST AT PAR BECAUSE WHEN ALL ARE SAYING APPLY IT IS MERCHANT BANKER WHO HAS INTEREST IN IT.WAIT FOR LAST DAY AND AFTER SEEING THE AMOUNT OF OVER SUBSCRIPTION TAKE A DECISION.

Heart says to apply and forget.

Mind says apply and sell in grey market as experience of big issues is not so good.
Conclusion in both the cases do apply as not applying is of no sense at all.

Strategy:
Simple For Coservative: sell in the grey market at anything above 5000/- mark.
For Risk takers: Apply and wait for the reaction from the market as if click to the FII and Inst. investor, then definitely beating the grey market returns.

For Moderate risk takers; 50% Sell in grey market and 50% keep for the show after listing day.

Best of luck take the prudent decision.

But do apply in nutshell.

Basically never came across such is big IPO with super quality and don't know how market will react to the same. Looks like if there is institutional and FII demang on the listing day then the price will sustain otherwise nothing can be expected from the retailer except selling on the listing day itself.

Another risk with respect to pricing is that CIL mostly has long term contracts with the state electricity boards. And to that extent, it will find it very difficult to pass on any major price rise to the latter, and thus the benefits of the same to its bottomline.
Overall, we believe that CIL will continue to face regulatory hurdles on the pricing front. In a country where vote bank politics leads the government to distribute free power, and the state electricity boards already reeling under losses, why would they be ready to pay more for power that will be produced using expensive coal? So indirectly, CIL's pricing will continue to remain low and not rise as rapidly as is expected during these heady times of the IPO.

Execution risks: The menace of Naxalism or Maoism has been rampant in India over the past few years. The situation has been grave for companies trying to get land or establish their presence in the eastern side of the country. And this is exactly where CIL has most of its mines located, including some of its important ones like Korba, Singrauli, and Talcher (see below). Even a large part of the future expansion that it is planning will happen in their mineral rich but Naxal infested regions. This poses huge risks for the company to execute its projects on time.


Over this, there is the issue of receiving environmental clearances that has been a tough nut to crack for most Indian companies eyeing huge tracts of land. Coal is a key global pollutant and so is coal mining. And the Indian environment ministry is digging its heels on these issues at a rapid rate. So whether it is the steel plant in Orissa or a bOxite mine in the same state, or a forest land in Himachal Pradesh, the ministry has taken upon itself the role of a responsible regulator. Mining and environmental issues have impacted CIL's expansion and growth in the past. This is seen from the fact that despite its huge reserves, and despite it being the world's largest coal miner, India continues to face a grim deficit of the commodity. And the future is likely to be no different.

150-60 ka mal 245 par aur machli (retail invester) phasaney kay liye 5percent discount.

I have Demat account with Religare Securities Ltd. and Saving A/c with AXIS bank. Can I subscribe Coal India through AXIS bank SMART IPO (ASBA) by mentioning Religare Securities Ltd as my DP ?

;isting day 4/11/10 all are seller go down

Another hype surrounding the future of CIL's realisations is the increase in the share of 'washed coal' in its total coal production. As we have indicated above, although the cost of production of washed coal is not significantly higher than the cost of production of non-washed coal, because of the former's higher calorific value, reduced ash content and associated benefits like lower environmental pollution, it commands higher prices than the latter i.e., non-washed coal. So the company is betting to raising the share of washed coal in its total coal production to benefit from higher prices. But if history is any proof, things have moved in the other direction. As seen from the chart below, the share of washed coal in CIL's total production of non-coking coal has declined continuously over the past five years and remains a very marginal 3% levels.
So, it is difficult to believe that the company is suddenly going to do something to see these levels rise in the future. And the second question is – why didn't it do this earlier? Of course, if this happens, i.e., if CIL is really able to take up the share of production of washed coal in the future, its margins will receive a fillip. But again, it's a big 'if'!

Pricing – Is it really deregulated?: Coal prices were deregulated in India in the year 2000. But despite that, CIL has been able to raise coal prices just four times in the subsequent ten years. And the average annual rise since then has been just around 5%. However, the management has indicated that the company is now trying to get over this issue and is raising prices at a greater frequency. But even if we were to study the past five years' numbers, the average annual increase in prices has been just around 5%. Despite the marginal increases CIL is likely to see in its prices going forward, we do not see its coal selling for rates even closer to the global peers. This is given that coal prices in India are largely cost driven than market driven. The biggest user industry i.e., power, is a politically sensitive issue, and as such CIL will continue to face problems raising prices of its coal.

EQUITYMASTER WHICH WAS ACCURATE WITH ITS AVOID RATING TO SEVERAL RECENTLY CLOSED OVERPRICED IPOS DOES NOT FIND COAL INDIA VERY ATTRACTIVE
At the higher level of the offer price of Rs 245 per share, CIL's IPO has been priced at a multiple of 16.1 times its FY10 earnings and 11.2 times its latest EV/EBIDTA. The management has indicated a 13-14% annual growth in sales and a strong 25% annual growth in net profits over the next three years. While we see the sale growth number as reasonable, the profit growth estimates are on the higher side. This is especially given the environmental and pricing constraints that CIL faces, which have hampered its earnings in the past as well. We do not see the situation changing drastically in the future.
Even if we assume a 10% annual growth in EBIDTA and 15% growth in net profits during the period FY10 to FY13, and give the stock a reasonable valuation of 10 times EV/EBIDTA and 15 times P/E, the target price is coming to around Rs 320. From the offer price levels of Rs 245, this implies an average annual return of around 12% over the next three years. However, factoring in the 5% discount that will be offered to retail investors, the average annual returns over the next three years would stand at around 14%.
Even if one were to compare CIL's valuations with the US coal mining major Peabody Energy, these look reasonable and not very attractive. In fact, the market cap per tonne that CIL's IPO is commanding is more than twice Peabody's numbers. In terms of employee productivity, the company scores poor as compared to Peabody and Shenhua Energy of China (world's third largest coal producer).
CIL's comparative analysis
Parameters      Coal India (FY10)      Peabody Energy (CY09)      Shenhua Energy (CY09)
Coal reserves (Proven, bn tonne)      10.6       9.3       7.4
Coal production (m tonne)      431.3       244.0       210.0
Sales (US$ m)      10,523       6,012       18,240
EBIDTA margin      22.1%      20.9%      38.8%
Net profits (US$ m)      2,138       448       5,441
Net profit margin      20.3%      7.5%      29.8%
Return on equity      37.2%      12.0%      21.2%
Debt/Equity ratio      0.1       0.7       0.4
Dividend payout      23.0%      14.0%      27.5%
No. of employees (thousand)      397      7       17
Coal production per employee (thousand tonne)      1.1       33.9       12.7
Valuations*                    
Current market price (CIL-Rs, Peabody, Shenhua-US$)      245       52       5
Price to earnings (based on TTM EPS)      16.1       25.9       19.3
Price to book value (based on latest book value)      6.0       3.5       3.4
Price to sales (based on TTM sales)      3.3       2.1       4.2
Market capitalisation (US$ bn)      34       14       16
Market cap per tonne of proven reserves (US$ bn)      3.2       1.5       2.1
** Valuations and related data for CIL assumed at a higher offer price of Rs 245 per share;
Source: CIL IPO prospectus, Peabody reports, Finance, Equitymaster Research
The biggest problem with CIL is that its management is expecting to do all the things over the next five years that it has never done in the past many years. Things like raising prices faster than in the past, raising the production of high priced washed coal faster than in the past, growing its sales and profits faster than in the past, and moving into international markets that it has not done in the past.
Based on the overall study of the pros (the company's large size and huge growth potential) and the cons (execution risks), we advise you to 'Apply' to the IPO. But this is only if you are satisfied with an average annual return of 12-14% over the next three years.
Anyways, let us make one thing clear here. Given the kind of euphoria that surrounds this IPO, there are big chances that the listing gains can be good (also as promised by the CIL chairman!). But we believe that you must not apply to an IPO, like you must never buy a stock, just speculating on short term returns.
Our view on CIL is from a long term perspective. The stock could become a strong 'buy' if it were to fall around 20-25% from its offer price over the next few months. But for the IPO, it is better to have reasonable expectations.

21/10/2010 ke bad market go down becouse money invest in ipo so careful

dipawali will be holi for coal india ipo
dipawali will be holi for market throught coal 9india