Cantabil Retail India Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 34)

GEM

Electrosteel casting...ka aaj bhao...track karna...

usme entry karna banta hai......

uske subsidary ka ipo aaa raha hai

yeh counter bahut din se nahi challlaaa..

aaab chalna chahiye shayad...

aaab nahi chlega to kaab chalega....Electrosteel...

SJ


NO OF SHARE PRI IPO = 85.5 LACS
IPO FOR RS.105 DIVIDED BY RS.135/SH = 77.77 LACS SHARES

SO TOTAL NO OF SHARES POST IPO = 85.5 + 77.77 = 1.63 CRORE SHARES
ITS PAT FOR FY'10 IS RS. 14.68 CRORES SO EPS = 9 NOT 10.

OK GEM that's ok

thanks for corecting me

But growth rate is good PEG is 0.6

price target of 180-200 as shreedhar also said is not a stretch

SJ

WHERE DID U GET THE EPS OF CANTABIL AS RS.10, I THINK ITS NOT EVEN 9 ITS 8.95, SO @ 135 PE IS ALREADY 15 AT PAR WITH KKCL, ALTHOUGH NO LISTED CO IS DIRECTLY COMPARABLE WITH IT.


PLZ LOOK AT THE FINANCIAL POST IPO OF CANTABIL :-

1) FY'10 SALES = RS.263.64 CR, PAT = 14.68 CR, NW = 134.5 CR.
2) FY'10 EPS = RS. 8.95 , BV = 82
3) ASKING PE BASED ON FY'10 NOS IS 15 TIMES @ 135, P/BV = 1.65 TIMES.

prudent investor

fundamental ko tum side rakh lo no problem
...
I am fundamental guy....

I am also share broker.....hence also practical

i also know technical....

Boss tumhare hisab se jubilant bohot bada issue tha na....?

Tub sks to sabse bada issue hona chhiye thaaa...tumhare hisab se....aur nhpc to share market se bhi bada ipo tha....phir to......lol....

123 crore for cantabill is small ..agreed.....but it is not bad........what if.....it gives 50 percrnt...gain like jubiliant.....and doubles in 3 months....the will you say that retail do not participate coz issue size is smalll.....

Anyways to helll with retail yaaar....

They are sheep and follow in herd mentality....

As miachel douglas in his gordan geeko billionare wall street investir character in the movie wall steet tells too charlie sheen.

DONT BE SHEEP :::::::::SHEEP GETS SLAUGHTERED

as shreedhar is doing...he is not following herd...and applying in tirupati going against other boarders...mentality.......no doubt and you can bet.....he will earn maximum from ipos compared to you and me......coz he is going against herd....he is no sheep.....!!.....

He did same thing in many ipos when you and i never blogged here....

Although i joke with him saying that he did not tell me or gem to apply for tirupati and himself applied although i am fully aware he told us on many occasions he is going for tirupati....when he says he is applying..for tirupati...i take him seriously although i joke with him on board....

So my dear freind dont make assumptions....
Regards

Sj

this is sj posting as ananymous coz know/using cellphone as i dont know how to type underscore from querty keypad......so cant log in with my login id coz it has underscore in between...

Dear saharanpurji

yes cantabill in full blast.......

But dont go by assumption that after 27 sep retail subscription....will be less..,.

In fact i have gone many times to my main broker and seen them signing or filling so many forms for themselves......

Do you think peole like you and mee makke subsciprtion of tirupati 22 times....NO....!!!

This is a very common myth you guys have sincee you only have access to final figures.....

Just as parties in india win elections from booth capturing in mass....

Hnis institutions and big depositiry and brokers...use the loopholes in sebi guidelines.......do you want a duplicate demat acocunt in yourr name with duplicate pan card no.....and different identity and details...i can easily open that for you although i dont do that i am giving you example...i have seen that with my own eyes....

Sebi ko kya chaiye sirf know your client form aur proofs naa...wo kahan cross chck karti hai...

Sebi is dysfunctional organisation....even if it finds out it will find out after 3 4 years....by/that time money...earned after using thoose proxies....wil change so many hands by hawala rout they will not be able to recognize whu is real culprit.....

Agar retail mein itna dam hota ke wooh 2m times application karte to companiyon ko hni or qib category ki kya zarrorat thi....paisa to retail se hi mil jata tha.....yeh sb to sebi ko dikhane ke liye upari dikhawa hai sirji.....

So hoping that retail fall in subsequent ipos is just hoping against hope....

Plus see the amount of demat holders in india and see how many open it for ipo flood to join party...there are very less trading account...so people who missed bull run due to fear...of crash and think secondary marjet is overvalued will rush for ipos to get good returns.....

Plus brokers are giving ipo funding and bankers also coz there is bull run and they do not cant to miss out on busineesss to other competitors...so liquidity to retail guys is too much.....

So be selective apply in ipos were chances of listing gains is maximum 4 or 5 only and apply with full force...and kkeeep tension on one side

regards


sj

Dear prudent investor,If you had applied for tirupati inks you would have got 12*180=2200 minimum & used it in Ashoka buidcon where you may get 2500,you may have got minimum of 4700-5000 per application.If u are lucky in Tirupati Inks you may not g0t even 10 K per application.
One more IPO which nobody is talking about will give max returns.I am waiting eagerly to check its QIB response.Everybody is saying it is expensive but infact it is cheap compared to its peers.I will go for it.

Dear Prudent investor,
I had already suggested in the board to go for Tirupati inks.I will be using that money to apply for Ashoka buidcon.

Dear Prudent Investor,
I have not yet given my fundamental analysis yet on the Issues as I have not even studied the RHP & do not intend to do.I have raised funds to subscribe in all the crowded IPOs which are coming now.I will not subscribe to career point however.
Other respectable boarders are in a better position to throw a light on your query's.

Sj,

Thanks for excellent analysis on Cantabil.

In my opinion One will get very poor allotments in IPOs like CP,Eros n even vatech due to high visibility specially seeing the high response in mediocre ipo like Tirupati.Moreover funds will be exhausted for most of retail investors by 27/09/10 .

Hence Ipos like Cantabil can give fantastic returns as allotment will be good due to low visibility n crowding of so many IPOs.

I still remember i had earned huge sum in 2007 in Koutons IPO when it had reached 1000 rs against an IPO price of 300 or so if i remeber correctly.

Be ready for similar experience

Dear SJ,

Mere Fundamental analysis will no more work in this grave situation of multiple issues at the same time. Now,we are not looking for the absolute gains per share but relative gains per full application.

And issue size with retailers appetite for the given company will play crucial role.And both are quite negative in the case of cantabil as:

- very Small size issue (mere 100 Crore around)
- great appetite from the general public (as its brand has recognisation in general public)

It may give handsome returns in absolute calculation of per share but per application, i don't think it will be able to generate the equally good returns.

Please Advice on the issue size of the Tecpro, As valuations you will be covering after the price declaration but to take decision we need Issue size right now.

thanks

Sahranpurji Gem and other Boarders

Go for Canatbil full blast...for listing

1)Its well established brand in delhi as you may be knowing and north west areas

2)Cantabil offers complete range of formalwear, party-wear, casuals & ultracasual clothing for men, women and kids in the middle-income group. Initially, Cantabil was started as a men’s wear brand, over the last 10 years, it has become a complete family wear brand with addition of women’s wear in 2007-08 and kids wear in 2008-09.

3)The funds are intended to be utilized as under:
1. Establishment of new integrated manufacturing facility (Rs 31cr)
2. Expansion of Exclusive Brand Outlets (Rs 25cr).
3. Additional Working Capital (Rs30cr).
4. Repayment of Debt (Rs20cr) and for General Corporate Purposes.

4)Its Pat has grown from 3 to 5 to 14 crores 2008 to 2010 i.e. 100% CAGR

Its sales has grown from 73 to 113 to 202 crores from 2008-2010 i.e. 40% CAGR

its EPS has grown from 6 to 12 to 17 i.e. 70% EPS growth (read this as not diluted coz diluted is 15...still growth is good on EPS front)

5) Now it operates on disount retail format. Internationally if you go to Germany and all over EuROPE . i HAVE BEN TO FRANKFURT PERSONALLY FOR MBA Training....WOOLWORTH operates on same model for many other variety of products....it sells like hell

6) Brand name is established and quality of products are good...product portfolio is complete under CANTABILL AND LA FANSO brands.

7) Now obviously it has low operating margins coz it is into discount retail. But it plays volume gain. People rush to it shops all the time coz there is 50-70% discount all the time...50% is flat most of the times...!! I have bought clothes from Connnaught place in Delhi so i know....

8) The EPS for FY 10, on the post issue capital (Rs 14.32cr) comes to Rs 10/-. At the upper band, the company is demanding a valuation of 13x. This compares well with the peers in the sector, like Kewal Kiran Clothing (14PE), Koutans Retail (12PE) and Provogue (25PE). So it will give good listing gains. Coz it can easily beat Koutons and provouge in product portfolio and pricing and play volume game.. i am totally confident...its fabric is also at par and its designing and fashion sense is quite good. I personally buy WLS Van Huesen Blackberry at premium prices coz i am fashion conscious. Now if i get same par designs at good fabric quality why will i go for WLS etc...esp. middle class people will be die hard customers of Cantabill as they have been in north western region. Just go its outlet in Connaught and see the crowd during every month or footfalls when discount is there every month. YOU WILL NOT GET PLACE TO KEEP YOUR FEET IN THE SHOWROOM..!!

9) It will open 160 more retail outlets this year. that will put its total outlets to 600 approk. Even if i aasume 70-80 lakh sales every year that is bare minimum and pessimistic outlook as it has been fetching 1.5 crore from existing stores you are looking at 400 crore worth of sales at least in FY2011...tHAT Translates into doubling of sales from current levels.

10) Risks are:

Aggressive expansion plans may put pressure on the operating profitability as the company might adopt pricing strategy to gain market share in newer regions.

a) Increase in fixed costs such as rentals to have an impact on operating profitability.

b) Highly fragmented and competitive market, dominated by the unorganized sector.

c)Crisil rating of 2 due to risk of expansion and competition.

So discount EPS if not 90% increase but 50% growth due to higher operating and fixed costs. Plus side interest costs to be reduced as patt of IPO will go to repay debt of 30 crores i guess will balance that out.

I think it will give 30% listing gains or if held till october quarter reults will increase to 50% type of gains...

PEG or PE to growth ratio is 10 PE/ 50% EPS GROWTH is 0.50. That means you can expect price target fair price at even if you take conservative 30% EPS growth instead of 50% is Rs. 180

Minus is allotment will be less coz subscription will be more..!!


Regards

Gem,

The EPS was 17 rs on a pre issue capital.So its not fair to calculate the EPS on post issue equity capital specially when one does not has the iea about the financial performance of first quarter results or even the half yearly result.

In my opinion the post infusion of new funds the debt will reduce substantially, the company will open large no of new stores on franchise model & it should move into new orbit.

Teh company is expected to maintain the same EPS of 17 rs in march 11 as well.As far as Koutons is concerned its a falling star due to company specific problem while Cantabil is the rising star But the lead manager SPA is not a very well known name.However valuation at Rs 135 are very attractive as the owner Vijay bansal is dynamic first generation entrepreneur with Fire in Belly.These are the guys who create maximum wealth.One can easily give a pe of 10-12 to cantabil on March 11 basis implying aprice of 170- 200 around.

The GMP is quite strong n has even moved to 37-38 in Calcutta market as well this evening.

SAHARANPURI,

PLZ LOOK AT THE FINANCIAL POST IPO OF CANTABIL :-

1) FY'10 SALES = RS.263.64 CR, PAT = 14.68 CR, NW = 134.5 CR.
2) FY'10 EPS = RS. 8.95 , BV = 82
3) ASKING PE BASED ON FY'10 NOS IS 15 TIMES @ 135, P/BV = 1.65 TIMES.

NOW TAKE LOOK AT THE PEERS:-

1) KOUTONS FY'10 AND FY'09 FOR BOTH THE YR SALES IS = 1204 CR, EPS = 26, CMP 296, SO PE OF 10, BUT ITS Q1FY'11 NOS ARE SCARY EPS = 2, IF ANNULISED LESS THAN 10.

2) KKCL FY'10 SALES 175 CR, EPS = 26, CMP 400, SO PE =15. P/BV = 2.81

BOTH OF ITS PEERS HAVE WELL KNOWN BRANDS, KKCL HAS KILLER, INTEGRITY, EASIES, ETC AS BRANDS.I DONT KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT CANTABIL'S BRANDS.

CONCLUSION : IT IS CLOSELY COMPARABLE WITH KKCL THAT TRADES AT 15 PE, 2.81 P/BV, MARKET CAP OF 492.75 CR. CANTABIL ASKING PE IS 15, P/BV IS 1.64, MARKET CAP @ 135 IS 221 CR. KKCL HAS NPM 2X OF CANTABIL.

SO THIS IPO MAY BE GOOD FOR ONLY 15% RETURN, I WILL AVOID IT.BETTER BUY KOUTONS HAS ATTRACTIVE VALN IN THE SECTOR AND BIGGEST OF ALL RETAILERS.

SJ,
Lord balaji who is an incarnation of Vishnu bhagwan resides in Tirupati.I am a devotee of Shivji.Apne board me 99 percent listing ke den share sell karte hain but fundamental questions puchte hain.Jo listing ke den sell karte hain unko Tirupati inks or vatech or Eros jo bhi hoo kya farak padtha hain.Abhi to chittorgarh mein itna bloggers hain.Pehle Cox,DB Corp ke time mein yeh question kohi nahi puchta tha.Tab allotment pucca hota tha or apna research ka jabardast faayda utaya hain hamne.Ab tho chote issues main fayda jada hota hain tho isliye main Tirupati,Microsec ki taraf partiality dika raha hoon aur Is liye main apna kaam chup chap kar le raha hoon.Research or advice tum sambal lo.
Tirupati I had already infd on the board I will go full blast.Mere upar itna gangoor aarop kyo karte hoon?
Is baar jab bhi Tirupati ko jaata hoon Adinath Ji ka darshan Jaroor karunga.

Hi Sj ,Gem & other friends

Enjoying your informative posts .

keep up the good work.

yes GMP is improving with each passing day for Va Tech.It had gone down to 250 & now the jump is remarkable after the price band was announced.

Sj,Gem & other friends

have you studied Cantabil? Its EPS was Rs 17 for march 10 & expected again to be 17 in March 11 .So the valuations are attractive on first glance.

Your call on Ramky Infra being expensive option seems to be the consensus view of the analysts well.So much huge gap of 405 to 468 is mind boggling & reflects the greed of the promoters.

THANKS..SHREEDHERBHAI...

PRINCEEEEEEEEEEE

Dear Daman

66 Lakhs or 66 thousand...

If 66 thousand...then avoid applying in any IPO

You will just get 1 tenth that is 6600 rupees worth of application only

Plus you will block your money...

Instead buy some good secondary market stock that can give you ten percent on 66000 instead of applying in IPOs and blocking your money for 20 days....you will miss bull run of Nifty going to 6200 levels in next 2-3 weeks.

Regards

P.S. I am not discouraging you but whats the point....?

Hi Saharanpurji...how are you

Long time no seee....where have you been...i think applying in Va tech and other ipos i guess...!!

350 for vatech are you sure...?....I am not doubting still too goood to believe....lol..

i will check from my grey also...

i also think it will go to 400 before subscription on last day...

then it may fall for short while....though

regards...

Lol....

Shreedhar...Dont give me soo much bhao...yaar ...kyun meri maaar raha hai...bahi...

main chota mota broker huuun yaar....

logon kooo share bech ke aur kharidwa ke ghar chalata hunn...

kabhi kabhi apne liye bhi kar leta hun...

i m no big timee..analyst phanalyst..

are main to tere saamne is board mein aya hun yaar

isse pehle to main tere aur gem ko follow kar raha thaa...

aaapkaaa sishya hunnn..main guruji....lol..

thik haaai ...woh bbaaat allag hai...ke tunee mereko aur...GEM ko EROSSS Bech karr.....khud tirupati mein apply kiya....thik hai yaar koi baat nahi....!!....lol

On a serious note and out of academic interest since tirupati sunke Shivji ki yaad aati haiii..

one fact i will tell you about tirupati balaji Lord shiva i mean....

he is very much worshiped by we jains as welll...!!

Tirpuatiji temple mein Balaji ke shivling ke saath humaaaareee adinath bhagwan..our first tirthankar out of 24.....ki murti bhi haiii,....

It is said in our sects or in our sacred books that Adniath...worshipped for thousand years..and his jaata or hairs become 1000 kilometeres long....hence shivji and adinath are same.....we worship him as adinathji our first....thirthankara....you worship as Shivji in hindu text....we also worship Shivji....

at that time thousands of years ago earth's atmosphere was such that....men were 100 feet long....and used to live for 1000 of years....

You can see even Dinosaurs had big height and life....

There also have been proofs of giant human being skeletons 100 feet long been dug up recently from earth worldwide...go to youtube...


So next time when you go to Tirupati Balaji Mandir plz noticee...adinath downstairs also...

meri taraf se you give my offerings to shivji...when you go to Tirupati next time.....

May god bless you

My best wishes to you...may you make double your money in Tirupati Inks

I will also share you operator price of buy and sell in Microsec...its mindboggling....but not on this board....you know why....

i will take huge risk of trading in microsec on listing day as i know targets in advance....as i know operator

Regards

and May Shivji bless you