Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 15)

Considering miserable performances of IPOs from Companies making losses, this IPO is very risky. See the fate of Adlabs, MEP Infra etc. Even profit making companies like UFO, PMPL, Shree Pushkar have fared badly. No doubt, this is a good long term bet, but one can wait for its listing fate and buy at discount in secondary market. All these IPOs have expressed nothing else but continuing greedy pricing.

Can you please explain greedy pricing in CCD? I mentioned earlier that on EV/EBITDA validation, this issue is at 25-30% discount to Jubilant. This is despite same store growth which has been better over last 2 years. If net profit is your only benchmark, then please see how he has turned around Sical after taking over in 2010.

Dilip Sir you are absolutely right. Buy from secondary market instead of IPO.

Indigo ipo update
Interglobe Aviation Ltd.
Price band 400-418
Lot 35 Shares
Retail discount Rs. 13/-

Date: 26th-28th October

BRLM: Morgan Stanley India

I would like to open a healthy debate to what Urchit bhai has said. I don''t mean to offend anyone, but would like to present my analysis.
First, it''s a great business model aimed at general Indian middle class and youth. Please visit any of their outlet and see for yourself. Starbucks is in fact a high society product where one has to minimum spend 300 rupees per person. And both. Models can co-exist and be successful as they cater to different segments. Haven''t both Maruti Alto and Toyota Corolla been successful in India?
Second, your analysis on weather is really poor. India per capita tea consumption is 1kg/year. Coffee is lesser obviously door to cultural reasons. But on combined basis, India ranks #40 on per capita consumption, even without adjusting for minors and very poor people. So got climate has nothing to do with tea/coffee consumption.
Third, I agree that coffee business is making losses at net level right now. But see EBITDA margins and operating profits. CCD is very good. In last 2-3 years, their same-store-sales growth has been better than Jubilant Dominos despite economic slowdown. Pls analyse financial statements more carefully. CCD offering is coming at 25-30% discount to Jubilant on EV/EBITDA basis.
Next, the market value of holdings in Mindtree and Sical is almost 2600 crore. You can assume any holding company discount that you like.
Sical was making losses when these guys bought it in 2010. They turned it around and it has been profitable despite economic downturn. All financial statements are available. This shows that he has very good ability to turnaround businesses. So let''s give him credit where it''s due. Mindtree investment has also been huge multi-bagger.

Apologies if I have missed out on anything.

At present ccd is showing losses but post ipo 25% debt will reduced & further ccd will issue fresh equities to clear debt. No doubt it will b one of blue chip co..

Roadside Romeoji I respect your views. However, I am not agreeing on some:
We cannot compare CCD with Jubilant Foods. Both have different products. Pizza is very popular in Indian community. Domino’s have all range of pizza starting from Rs. 44. They are targeting normal people also. Roadside pizza is also available from Rs. 50 to Rs. 70. People love to buy Rs. 44 pizza from Domino’s instead of roadside. Same time people have restaurant comfortless like AC etc. Jubilant Foods have more than 60% sales coming only from Rs. 44 pizza. This is the main fact why its stock is performing well. Becaof low price menu, company is successful. While in CCD Indian people think twice to spend Rs. 60 to 70 on simple tea or coffee. Same time other option, normal tea or coffee available in Rs. 10 to Rs. 15.
Weather makes important role in coffee sales. In east coast of United States, we find everyone with coffee mug while in west coast it is hard to find anyone with coffee mug. This is becaof cold weather in east coast and hot in west. I studied case study of Dunkin Donuts. This is low-grade chain compared to Starbucks in United States. Same way CCD in India. Its products cost is 20 to 25% compared to Starbucks. Franchise price of Dunkin Donuts in east coast is millions of dollars while no one is ready to run franchise even free in west coast.
People rich or normal, buy four-wheeler once in 4 to 5 years. However, each people need tea or coffee 2 to 3 times a day. People think twice to spend Rs. 60 to 70 on just coffee or tea.
I am sorry if I hurt anyone’s feeling about CCD.

Ahmedabad kostak 450

Some of my analysis about this IPO:
Business model is very weak as per India. Customers of CCD are high society people. Products are very costly. Normal people cannot afford its products in India. Most profit making products like black coffee unable to get good response from customers. Weather is very hot in most of all parts of India. People are not comfortable to drink beverages like coffee in hot atmosphere. In addition, taste of most products (sour) is not comfortable to Indian Community. CCD is able to get customers only in IT hub of India Bangalore, Pune, Hyderabad etc. Totally failed in tier 2 cities of India.
I think its main competitor in Inia is Tata Global Beverages. Analysts are saying this company will perform well but not performing since last 25 years. Tata Global joins hands with Starbucks (World’s No. 1 in retail Beverages from United States) before 3 years. Company still reaches to only 75 outlets in 3 years. Tata Global has no funding problem but struggles in retail business.
CCD is continuous loss making company. Financial data available for last 3 years only.
Not able to find its true IPO cost becaof continuous loss. Also, not comparable for P/E or other ratios with competitor.
Company cannot make profit unless its target customers are normal Indian.

I suggest investors to apply for this IPO with very high risk. It’s nothing wrong to avoid this IPO becaof weak business model, continuous loss and unfavorable market sentiments.
Please note this is only my views.

Uchit Patel Please this link http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/ril-ongc-sbi-bhel-l-t-could-be-out-of-sensex-in-10-years-ambit-capital-115062300208_1.html .....which says CCD will be in SENSEX in coming years

Market Share of Ard 50 % makes CCD Market Leader

Best IPO in 2015. Expecting 25% return on listing day.

Infosys cofounder Nandan Nilekani and billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala would want to increase their stake

No profit

only loss

Any analysis yet by DD..? Or other analysts..? Loss is multiplying YoY. Revenue is stagnant. Seems to me, promoters are en-cashing the brand at appropriate time. Looks fishy..

kostak 550-ahmedabad

Hello people. Valuations are mouth watering. RK/RJ bought in pre-IPO round at validation of 6200cr. Issue is now coming at pre-money valuation of 5400-5600cr. Any views?

Yep...the fact that RK/RJ bought @ 6200 and now IPO is @ 5400+ is both good and bad...good for the obvious reason and bad probably becasentiment around food services business has deteriorated over the past few months...Jubilant has corrected significantly over the last 6 months...just becaRK/RJ bought at a higher price doesn''t necessarily make existing price attractive...

However...since its a holding company IPO so real gain will come as and when clarity over promoters unlocking of various assets starts playing out..

Any idea on kostak and GMP?

Kostak price ????

20% return CDE

What about CCD premium?

aney retails discount ???

No discount becaits not an OFSS

What is the lot size ? More details on eps

how much lots one individual retail investors can apply? What''s ur view on coffee day ipo davda sir..

A retail investor can apply from 45 shares to 585 shares in multiples of 45 and can bid for only one lot as per his capacity to invest. This issue is greedily priced and hence in a High Risk zone

PRICED TOO HIGH.

Please Justify your Comment Sir.Look at the Margin of Safety in the Stock .Invesment like Mind tree ,Sical value is ard More then Rs 2000 Cr. Just Looks its Serai Property it will make your eyes wide open