I have done my fair value calculation on Eagleye yogadaan i get a Fair value of Rs 402 at 25% MOS. So at Rs402 we Get PE of 62 still less then Trent Ltd
so listing will be around Rs 450 if you consider Dmart market leader
Assumption:
1. Net Profit:
I have assumed the NP for 2017 at 400 Cr i got this figure after considering profit for 2016 is 318 Cr and the company NP has grown at 50% CAGR i have consider only 22% less then half of 50% CAGR
2. Outstanding shares
I have taken eagleye''s numbers she as assumed that the total IPO will be new issue which put outstanding share at 623936311 shares. So this will be the max if the management decided not go for full then the fair value will be BETTER
3. Growth Rate:
Growth rate again i considering 22% when CAGR is 50%
4. EPS and PE
Based on this assumption i am get a EPS of 6.41 on diluted bases and if IPO price is 299 then PE would be of 47
5. Peer Analysis
Future Retail:
CMP 191.80
EPS Annualised 6.06
PE 32
Trent Limited:
CMP 245.50
EPS Annualised 3.7
PE 68
Initial Cash Flow: $4,00,00,00,000
Years: 1-5 6-10
Growth Rate: 10% 8%
Terminal Growth Rate: 5% Discount Rate: 10%
Shares Outstanding: 62,39,36,311 Margin of Safety: 15%
Debt Level:
Year Flows Growth Value
1 5,00,00,00,000 25% $4,54,54,54,545
2 6,20,00,00,000 24% $5,12,39,66,942
3 7,62,60,00,000 23% $5,72,95,26,672
4 9,30,37,20,000 22% $6,35,45,65,945
5 11,25,75,01,200 21% $6,99,00,22,539
6 13,50,90,01,440 20% $7,62,54,79,134
7 16,21,08,01,728 20% $8,31,87,04,510
8 19,29,08,54,056 19% $8,99,93,25,788
9 22,95,61,16,327 19% $9,73,56,34,261
10 27,31,77,78,429 19% $10,53,21,86,155
Terminal Year $28,68,36,67,351
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: $73,95,48,66,492
Terminal Value: $2,21,17,59,09,265
Total PV of Cash Flows: $2,95,13,07,75,757
Number of Shares: 62,39,36,311
Intrinsic Value (IV): $473.01
Margin of Safety IV: $402.06
What Percentage of IV comes from 75%
the Terminal Value: