My calculation of SH quota subscritpion,
Due to the fact that bids exceeding 200k are not permitted in SH, the calculation is based on the assumption that a valid application falls below 200k.
As of December, there were around 110k shareholders, so I assume there will be an additional 40k shareholders until Rhp is filled.
So we may assume 150k shareholders are eligible to apply under Sh quota.
Out of 150k eligible shareholders 30%(45000 applicants) may bid to max app amount which comes 190k
So 45000*189540(13 lots with cut off)=855 cr
50% may apply for 1 lot
So 75000*14580=110 cr
Rest of 20% application money can be averaged with 5 lots
So 30000*72900=220 cr
So 855cr+110cr+220cr=1185
Reserved portion for sh quota is 30 cr so 1185/30=40x
Consequently, we may encounter mild to heavy subscriptions that span from 40 to 60 times.
So applicant with 13 lots may have roughly 1/4 chance for 1 lot allotment.
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