AVP Infracon Limited IPO Message Board (Page 5)

I was in jabardast dilemma after quite some time.
But stuck to "when in doubt, stay out".

For me, the final decisive factors were the negligible (read "managed") QIB subscription and the rock steady (which also may be "managed") moderate GMP. Especially in the wake of SEBI chief's unnecessary comments on SME, these factors were too big to ignore.

Further, there could be opportunities in secondary mkts in Monday, Tuesday; so keeping cash doesn't hurt.

Skipped. Nothing wrong with the company.

Applied two retail

It seems QIB are more afraid than retailers..!!
Lagta hain bhari loss ho gaya hain 😂

I am concerned about the consistently negative free cash flow.

I have a small position in Uday Shivkumar. Other than for portfolio diversification, I am unable to convince myself why I should buy AVP at the IPO price rather than add to the USK position.

For USK, Cash Flow from Operations has been around positive 24 crores and positive 35 crores in the last two fiscal years. Total capex in both years has been around 17 crores and, out of that, I am assuming maintenance capex to be roughly equal to the Depreciation , so at around 6 odd crores. So, both cash flow from operations and free cash flow have been decently positive relative to the PBT of 21 and 16 crores in the two years .

USK does have its own issues as you rightly pointed out , but their cash flow conversion ratio has been quite good.and they are doing a much better job of managing working capital , at least for the last two full fiscal years.

So refreshing to see folks discussing cash flows on this forum. Such a welcome break from the usual unevolved discussions on financials.

As someone said, P&L is an opinion but cash flow is reality.

Keep minting!

GMP shown is ₹20, par is GMP pe kaam ho bhi raha hai kya market me?
Fundamentals are okayish & in-line as per sector. Not undervalued or any sudden high growth is expected. 15% listing gain mil jaaye to bhi accha hai abhi to.

8 retail apps still have fair chance to get 1 or 2 lot allotments. All the best

Thank you sir. & all the best to you too.

QIB numbers pathetic. Barely subscribed 1× .

Not tried applying here. All the best to last moment, courageous people.
Hope it lists to give a good gain.

​@lokes @Tejas Pandya @Noorul Are you all applying request you to please give your input quickly.

Didn't applied.

I also applied 2 Retail Application at 3.58 P.M by HDFC BANK ASBA Reading Lokes, Rohiitian and Many other Respected Members Comments and DD Sir Apply Review and Showing Subscription Figures.. Assuming Positive Listing...

Bade bade gurus and mentors ki sun ke lag raha hai retail me apply kar du...1.5 years se to mila nahi kabhi shayad ab mil jaye...fingers crossed🤞

Final Call - Taking risk here, going with fundamentals and not current sentiments (it may backfire badly, I understand that). Applied 2 retail lot applications.

Ohk, this is now decently over subscribed in Retail, so chance of allotment reduces further.. I was hopeful earlier, with better chances of allotment with 2 retail applications.

Applied 2 Retail and 1 HNI.

All drew a blank.

PE ratio, sector, financials are ok but I am still waiting for decent participation from QIBs. If that comes, I will apply 2-3 retail applications. (funds remaining that much only).

Finally, not applying looking at QIB numbers.

Looking at the weak subscription figures, current market sentiment, a loosing opportunity is way better than loosing money.
Savdhan rahe satark rahe...

Personal view
- Aggressive promoters, looking to grow biz 50-60% YoY over next few years. Targeting 1500 Cr in 5 years. This sector has provided us with several 10x baggers in the last decade.
- Operating margins in line with industry
- Order book is ~1.5x of sales (low compared to peers), but completion within 1 year, giving near-term revenue viz. 700 Cr worth tenders in process
- Single state risk is there, now bidding for projects outside TN. Local govt in TN is stable (no shocks expected in the election)
- Management projects 160-170 Cr in rev. in FY24, with 12% PAT. At lower revenue range, at 12 PE (road EPC median), MCap comes to ~230 Cr (+25% upside). If PE stretched to 13-14 (accounting for next year's high growth) then we come to MCap of ~265 Cr (40% upside). Very unlikely in this market mood.

Overall a 15-20% listing gain candidate. Chance of discount listing seems low unless sentiment tanks, and upside also limited. Can be a portfolio stock. People who took bet on USK are sitting on 70% gain in 1 yr despite negative listing. Rajasthan Securities is the largest anchor (they're one of the best). Planning to apply FF for multiple lots, waiting for QIBs to ensure that portion doesn't go to retail & HNI. Willing to hold if listing poor. Please DYOD.

Indian markets, though in red, are getting very close to reversal from technical as well as value standpoints. An ideal situation for value buyers to keep cash and list ready..once it starts firmly, there’ll be hardly any downside glitch for next 3 months. Key is to be selective.

​@Abias Was planning to apply & get 3 lots, but changed mind last minute because of strange QIB participation of exactly 1x. Will buy the other 2 lots only when trend reverses, this is a great opportunity because LC momentum will mostly force it to shoot down far below fair price.

Applied FF for confirm allotment

Now.. calculation gone due to much more hni subscription .. total 7 applications

Applied in hni

Reservation to QIP = 1248000 Shares = Rs.9.36 crores
Applied by FII under QIP QUOTA = 1248000 shares
Others under QIP = 62400 shares = Negligible quantity
No subscription from DII and MF as well.
It seems the FII subscription being exactly equal to QIP quota might be arranged by the company promoter.
I have skipped this IPO because of poor subscription under QIP and fear of discount listing. May try to buy at preopen, if listed at discounted price.

I'm avoiding this script.

Something wrong with QIB subscription? I mean, it's 0 shares.. I have applied 2 retail, now in doubt if I should withdraw my applications. Matlab QIB is absent altogether for very first time till 12:30.. Not even single share applied.

@Admin @ Chittorgarh.com, sir I hope this is correct number reflecting for QIB

QIB ka jugaad hogaya

Yes, it can be single or few QIBs only, as I see it is increasing at random rate.. But still very less

MSK agro IPO at 120 now trading at 64... almost half wealth is eroded within a week...sme can be very very risky

Apples and oranges are not comparable..

That's a very uninformed take. MVK came at FY'24 PE of 22 when entire sector trades at 12-14 PE. AVP is coming at FY'24 PE of 10 when sector trades at 12-13 PE.