AU finance is a stock which u want in portfolio this company was CARG is 45% with Indian mindset moving from buy when u have cash to buy if you can pay the EMI. Au finance is a business on this model with 300000 customers with a loan book of 6500 crs and average loan size is approx 2 lakhs. most is backed by physical assets.
In my modelling i have put a growth rate on 22% in my DCF model only when the company has grown at 45% IMO the fair value of AU is close to Rs 500 with 25% MIS it will have bumper listing this animal is best of the last three SME banks equitas, ujjivian this is the superstar equitas and ujjivian are just supporting actors in this setup
Initial Cash Flow: Rs 3,26,00,00,000.00
Years: 1-5 6-10
Growth Rate: 20% 15%
Terminal Growth Rate: 5% Discount Rate: 10%
Shares Outstanding: 28,42,50,906 Margin of Safety: 25%
Debt Level:
Year Flows Growth Value
1 3,91,20,00,000 20% Rs 3,55,63,63,636.36
2 4,69,44,00,000 20% Rs 3,87,96,69,421.49
3 5,58,63,36,000 19% Rs 4,19,70,96,919.61
4 6,64,77,39,840 19% Rs 4,54,04,95,758.49
5 7,84,43,33,011 18% Rs 4,87,07,13,631.83
6 9,25,63,12,953 18% Rs 5,22,49,47,350.51
7 10,82,98,86,155 17% Rs 5,55,74,44,000.09
8 12,67,09,66,802 17% Rs 5,91,10,99,527.37
9 14,69,83,21,490 16% Rs 6,23,35,23,137.95
10 17,05,00,52,928 16% Rs 6,57,35,33,490.93
Terminal Year Rs 17,90,25,55,574.73
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: Rs 50,54,48,86,874.62
Terminal Value: Rs 1,38,04,42,03,309.50
Total PV of Cash Flows: Rs 1,88,58,90,90,184.11
Number of Shares: 28,42,50,906
Intrinsic Value (IV): Rs 663.46
Margin of Safety IV: Rs 497.59
What Percentage of IV comes from 73%
the Terminal Value:
SO APPLY AND BUY ON LISTING IF IT LIST BELOW AROUND 400 FOR BUMPER LONG RUN
BTW I HAVE NOT TAKEN 518 CRS ADDTIONAL PROFIT FROM EXTRA ORDINARY BUSINESS ( IN THIS CASE SALE OF ASSETS)