Aster Silicates Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 12)

62. Ajayghosh

If you read 3 - 4 brokerage house reports, they give 3 - 4 different targets ranging from 30 - 50. To analyse ourselves we don't have expertise & information. You can't visit their plant & ask for critical information. Only number crunching in publicly available datas like red herring prospectus / information availabe with Exchanges will not solve the problem. Inside information plays vital role. Hence, nobody knows fair value perfectly. Even if you know, it will keep changing from time to time depending upon interest rate change, government policy etc.

Next problem is whom to believe?

Hence, I take average of all the brokerage house reports that I referred. However, it will go wrong sometimes. In stock market, consensus don't work. Although it is not perfect method, at the circumstances, I believe this is the better solution.

Some people say I said Rs.28 or 30 is the fair value (at this circumstance, it may be true for SJVN). However, before putting IPO telling with confidence is important. Even if some people say, there is no consistency. Out of 10 recommendations, 5 will hit & 5 will flop. In the end, investors will be at loss.

This is where technical analysis will gain importance. As per technical analysis, its fair value appears to be between Rs.28 to 29. But it should be reviewed at least once a month. Technical analysis also is not easy to interprete.

This is further to Post # 918 or 919.

There is strong support at 21.90. IPO investors need to liquidate their positions if it breaches 21.50 (not 23). Cut your emotion in investment world.

100% conform that ipo will be failed.

As per the opinion of S.P. Tulsian, the fair price of Aster Silicates of only Rs.35. In my opinion, this issue will be extended, the price readjusted and finally cancelled.

Eps 2.9, demanding pe 40,grade 1 companies trading 4 pe, this co is 3 rd class and very small therefore after listing it will trade not more than 3 pe, there fore fair value is rs. 9 only, co 9 ka share public ko 118 pay pakda rahi hi, yah tho tara and embi poly ka bhi baap hi.

You have not mentioned anywhere about how u arrived at fair value of 38.Why its fair value is not 39.5 but only 38.Please elaborate.There is no need for me to criticise you if I did not incur loss in Tarapur.Do u think I do not have any better work than criticising you unless I suffered the loss.I bought as you told at 95 & 85(after it fell from 95) & after suffering loss I did not have money to implement your second strategy.What If there also I had suffered loss if the stock had suddenly moved up?

60. Ajayghosh

Please check-up in SJVN Section. I have given my opinion.

Last month itself, I clearly mentioned that it is vulnerable to selling pressure. As you are yellow-eyed, you noticed only fundamental value but ignored technical opinion.

To know how to arrive at fair value, please go to basics. You can ask articleship students practicing in CA office. I have used data of brokerage reports that are publicly available.

Can you please explain logic of trading stocks like Tarapur without keeping stop-loss. Why you did not book at least partial profit when it hit first target? Why you did not short-sold when I gave recommendation for second time? I know very well that you don't act on any of my recommendation but making only loose talk. Even, I don't like you to use my opinion for your investment decision.

Kinldy read my Posts about "Analystis Recommendations Useful" in Shree Ganesh Section & my Post # 55 here. You need to take responsibility for your money.

Mr Ravi,Can you tell how u have come across fair value of 38 so that board members can be enlightened by the gyan provided by u.

This factory is not better than Tara food, and my rating is -2 , 95% lose conformed .

jagteraho

MARKET OUTLOOK

Nifty (5320)

As long as it holds 5260, it is bullish. However, in case of fall, 5265-5070 is no trading area for short-term.

Till it holds 5070, every dip is buying opportunity for investors.

Resistance 5470, 5620 or even 5875+.

Support 5080, 4810 or at worst case, support exists around 4660 (or roughly 4600)


Yuan de-pegging move will give rupee a fillip - DNA

China’s announcement that it would effectively de-peg its currency, the Renminbi, from the US Dollar could be massively bullish for currencies of emerging market economies in Asia, including India, say analysts.

The Indian Rupee is “particularly well-placed to gain” from the de-pegging of the Yuan, notes Standard Chartered foreign exchange strategist Priyanka Chakravarty. In a research report to clients, she added that the USD-INR was likely to “convincingly breach 46.00, and the market would likely focus on the 100-day moving average of 45.70.

Standard Chartered analyst Callum Henderson sees a “knee-jerk move lower” for the US dollar against both emerging market and G10 currencies as a consequence of the yuan action. “Particular beneficiaries could be those who export to China —- whether in commodities or manufactured goods".

On balance, when China, the world’s largest emerging market economy, allows for a modest and gradual appreciation of its exchange rate, this may make other emerging market economies more tolerant of currency appreciation, he adds.

'Appreciating Yuan Not to Have a Huge Impact on India'- Outlook India

An appreciation in the Chinese currency Yuan might not have a huge impact on India, a noted global currency expert said.

"A Yuan appreciation may not have a huge impact on India," currency expert and Non-Executive Director of Elara Capital, Avinash Persaud, told PTI here today.

If China gets expensive, we will import from other cheaper countries like the Philippines or ASEAN countries.

Indian Commerce and Industry Minister, Anand Sharma, had expressed concern over the exchange rate vis-a-vis Yuan and said that the policy should be such that Indian exporters are not disadvantaged.

He further said that Indian exporters should have been prepared to face a strong Rupee and chalked out plans to be profitable at below Rs 40 per dollar.

Don't Blame Others For Your Losses

Many people will lose money in the stock market and go on a blaming streak. They blame the market for being volatile, they blame the government for raising or lowering interest rates, or they even blame their friends for giving them their stock views.

For the amateur trader nothing is ever their fault. Something outside of his control made him lose money on his last trade. If they buy a stock and the market crashes it isn't their fault. After all he did what he believed was the right thing to do.

The professional trader thinks a little different. Everything that goes wrong is his fault. If he places a trade and loses money he takes the blame and looks to see what HE did wrong. They should have been prepared just in case the market crashes.

Funny how that works, trading armatures never make mistakes but professionals (the ones making money in the market) make mistakes all the time. At least that is how they perceive it. The real benefit of accepting loss as a bad decision is it leads to growth.

When you blame others you assume that it was not your fault, so you do not need to improve on anything. When you take responsibility for your losses you tend to want to fix the mistakes you have made. You want to look back and see what you did wrong so that you will not make the same mistakes in the future.

The first question someone who lost money should ask is. Did I follow my rules? If not how can I make it so I follow my rules more closely in the future? Maybe you have to become stricter when following your investment plan. If you were following your rules and you still lost money then you should look at your rules.

What is the weakness of your trading strategy? (Every strategy has one). How can you improve it, how can you make it so you don't lose money again in the future? Accepting the blame and attempting to fix the problem when something bad happens is the only way to enjoy long lasting success as a trader.

1. Know your stocks.

Do not buy a company stock because the name is prestigious. Do not buy in because a friend tipped you. Take the time to research a sector and get to know your companies before buying in. It is extremely important to be aware of why you chose to invest your money in the stocks you pick.

2. Block your emotions.

Are you feeling you got infected by market’s panic? Remind yourself why you invested in each of your stocks. When you buy a stock, write down in your pocket diary why you invested in it and what are you expecting from it in the near future. Keep re-reading that pocket diary every time you feel the urge to sell before absorbing your big loss. Remind yourself that in the end emotions in the market shift and prices recover.

3. Blame yourself for losses.

If you come out of a correction having sold at a loss, do not justify your losses by blaming your friend who tipped you. You have only yourself to blame. Investing in the stock market is risky; no one forced you to invest your money. By blaming yourself you are forced to identify what went wrong in your strategy and how you can avoid this from happening in the future. We will always be going into minor/major corrections, if you got hit badly by one, work on protecting yourself from the next one.

4. Keep money on the side.

Market drops are opportunities to pick up stocks on the cheap. In fact these would be your best buys compared to buying into a hot sector where your grandma, your brother in law and your neighbor’s dog are looking to buy into. At least keep your margin free, it gives you the buying power you need to capitalize on weakness. These will be your most profitable trades.

NSE website is showing 'post issue modification period 29-June-2010. What does it mean?

47. Anil,
There can be arguments about one's capacity and criticisms, but they have to be healthy. Who gave you the liberty to call a person a fool in a public forum? First of all, learn to maintain decency and decorum.

52.Ajayghosh,
Did Ravi ask you to follow his advices and suffer? It is an open forum in which he is expressing his opinions. If you follow them you are doing so at your own will and wish. Don't forget one thing. There can't be an expert who can have 100% success on his calls. Both success and failures will be there. You have to measure the number of successes and failures on the calls of a person and then decide whether his opinions have to be taken seriously or not. Even after that don't forget that you will be doing so at your own will and wish.

sab kuch loot le jayenge ye company wale IPO ke nam par, ise lia kahete hai jagte raho.

47 & 48 Anil,

It is clearly showing that I have asked to buy Shree Ganesh at 110-130 zone. Now it is 115 with a stop at 100. As it is trading above stop-loss level, it is open (not closed, not stopped-out). Can't you see properly. What is wrong in this? This for long-term investors.

SJVN trading at 23. IPO investors are at 7% loss. If you can't comfortable with 7% loss, don't come to stock market. Investors should be ready to take 15% - 20% kind of loss if they want more than 50% profit. If you want to earn Rs.3, be prepared to loose Re.1. Otherwise, stock market is not fit for you. Because of such risks, stock market can give 30% - 50% kind of returns per year. Go for FD, you can get around 8.5% assured return.

Unexpetedly, due to any other inside information, if falls below Rs.20, investors need to book loss owing to money managment rules. As per publicly available information, it has no reason to fall below Rs.20.

This call is only at 7% loss & trading well above Rs.20. What is that great problem? Some scripts move unexpetedly. Hence, stop-loss required.

If all calls go as per my expectation, I will stop working. Then, making money becomes easier than even printing currency notes. People need not save in Fixed Deposits. Everybody put their 100% saving in stock market.

You please go back to Shree Ganesh Section & read Post No. Read Post # 974, 920, 908 & 879. How many of your calls failed. Introspect yourself before criticising. My calls are still open & valid.

I want to give some other view on many other calls? Your criticisms are wel-come so that more people will read. Whether they follow or not is left to them. I cannot force anybody to follow & I am not getting any monetary benefits. My views get maximum hits of Board Members. No matter if they don't follow. Board Members will enjoy & this web-site becomes lively because of my Posts & also your Posts.

I am happy to chat with you people daily for about 15 minutes. I like Anil, Hemant, Ajay Ghosh. I have noted down your names. I expect some more critisizers tomorrow. More you criticise, more popularity you are giving to my views. It refreshes my mind. If you act on my view without doing your own home-work, that is your mistake. I am enjoying chatting with you.

Guys, this is a thread for discussion about the upcoming IPO - Aster Silicates.
People are talking about everything but the IPO.

I am not convinced on the valuation front. Seems too expensive to me.

. Ravi, Bangalore Jun 02, 2010 7:25:45 PM IST Report Spam
1036. Anil

Following is the facts about your Shree Ganesh Calls: -

Read Post # 974, 920, 908 & 879.

You are pointing only your success rates. I am pointing both my success & failure. That is the difference.

To your criticism list, add DB Corp also. I have not applied thinking it is over-valued. Hence, missed listing gain.

Except my call about Hathway & Indiabulls all fundamental calls clicked.

Regarding technical calls, I am giving time-to-time even intra-day also.

SJVN

Fundamental call valid. When it has Rs.13 upside (Rs.38), why don't you hold till it breaches Rs.20. It is good long-term investment. Fundamentally, nobody can guess whether it gives listing gain or not.

Regarding technicals, my call is still open.

Indiabulls Power

Lost Rs.12,500 within minutes.

Hathway

Lost at opening bell. But made net-profit at closing by shorting.

Check Ravi

Ravi, Bangalore May 28, 2010 4:02:05 PM IST Report Spam
SGJHL 126- Target 139, 164. Stop-loss 100. BUY in 130-110 range.

Currently it is neither bullish nor bearish. Becomes bullish when crosses 130 & turns bearish if breaches 100. When in neutral zone, it can turn either side.

When it crosses 171, it may kiss 250.

Fundamentally, fair value seen at Rs.180.