Aster DM Healthcare Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 9)

5 Warren Buffett quotes that can help you invest better in volatile times (Source: Moneycontrol)

1. It''s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.
2. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.
3. Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree long time ago.
4. Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.
5. No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.

When there is confusion about an ipo, better avoid

Warren Buffett wrote about IPOs, in his 1993 letter…

[An] intelligent investor in common stocks will do better in the secondary market than he will do buying new issues…[IPO] market is ruled by controlling stockholders and corporations, who can usually way of public offering or in a negotiated transaction.

Charlie Munger said this in Berkshire’s 2004 meeting…

It is entirely possible that you could use our mental models to find good IPOs to buy. There are countless IPOs every year, and I’m sure that there are a few cinches that you could jump on. But the average person is going to get creamed. So if you’re talented, good luck.

2.15
QIB - 0.61 +
NII - 0.30 = 0.91
( QIB + NII ) dono ko mila ke bhi pura nahi bhara. !
sure nii will be under subscribed.

IPO not fully subscribed even on last day .... likely to be extended ...!

wish price band to be down to below 150

I am appying one lot to ipo...As per current GMP gainn of 10rs per share will be spared which comes to 780rs per lot profit.
I dont mind getting that small profit unless I get a big ZERO in other highly oversubscribed issues.Its worth taking a risk wit applying one lot only

Agree with you

I Don''t Think With this much Subscription. There is any premium.
But If lucky. Listing Day''s Intraday can get you 10Rs. Maybe

And Again. Retail investors to the rescue of sinking IPOs.
And then people say. "Linkin time, Karvy, Big Fish Ka Fault Tha!!"

It is HDFC Securities.

Latest figure kya kare sub ya avoid

Is Aster worst than Galaxy?

definately

@ 1 pm
qib - 0.5020
nii - 0.27
rii - 0.80
----0.60
very cold response.i think nii will be under subscribed.

Latest figur

QIB 51
HNI 28
RII 80

Total 61%

Poor response
Only 57% subscribed till 12 pm

................ Aster DM healthcare............
(We''ll treat you well..!! )
_________________________________________
Operating in healthcare segment with
-Hospitals (19)
-Retail pharmacies (206)
-clinics(98)
With revenue contribution 46%,27%,27% respectively in GCC- middle east countries (UAE, Saudi, Qatar etc)and india as well as Philippines as of march, 2017
- contribution in total revenue of gulf countries are 81%.
-Total hospital business contributing 49% of 31 sept 2017.
(so as name suggests this is healthcare firm, more wider than specific hospital business)
_________________________________________
Revenue CAGR : 32.5%
PAT caGr : 30%(uneven growth)
EBITDA caGr : 8%
M.cap @190rs ≈ 8400cr
D/E = 1.4x (pre ipo)
D/E = 0.8x(post ipo)
______________________________________
Peer :
No actual peer available that doing exactly same business as aster does, but Apollo hospital somewhat more comparable than other peer.

................. PE....... PS........topline growth

Aster......... 44........1.4x........33%
Apollo........71........2.3x........17%
NH............ 75.........3.3x.......18%
HcG...........120........4x.........17%
Shalby........55......... 7x........11%

PS = m.cap/sales

Aster shown extraordinary top line growth compared to peers ,must be due to aggressive expansion plan and that leads to negative bottom line in 2017(excluding exceptional) and 2018 half year.

_________________________________________
Valuation :

@190 rs 2017 PE = 44
2018 PE = NA (made loss in first half)

Here in hospital segment and/or healthcare segment PE is imo not much useful because you can verify stocks trading 20 to 120 PE comfortably.
So sales base valuation may good approch here.

@2x sales(near Apollo) m.Cap = 12000+ cr.
(half year sales = 3140cr)

@12k cr valuation Price = 270(fair value imo)(1 yr after list)

@1.5x sales = 210 INR(within a month/listing)
________________________________________
Cons
- loss making first half
- low presence in India
- high EV/EBITDA ratio(profitability concerns)
- planning few more hospitals within 2 years, PAT continue to remain under pressure

Pros
- PE player not exiting.
- diversified business
- beds increased 1419 to 4754 within 5 yr.
- aggressive expansion plans
- out of 9 hospitals in Gulf countries 4 are established in less than 5 years(so this are not contributing at full in financials generally it takes 5 yrs to contribute full after establishment)
- D/E will decreased 1.5 to 0.8x post issue.
_________________________________________
Rii reqd 2.3L + forms for 1x,
Looking at neutral or risky rating by top reviewer, 0 GMP and Volatile market conditions only 4-5L forms expected,
i.e = 1/2 allotment chances (more than fair!)
_______________________________________
ConcL

One may subscribe to this finest healthcare player(but yet to deliver) for semi-med to medium term approach.
Listing gain may be 0.5 to 1FD. Or may wait for Last day Nii/QIB figures

Consider above as an imo only ????

Bit early to comment or justify 2 hr as semi- medium term???

Agree with Gamble. He did not mention anywhere listing gain. He said subscribe for semi-med to medium which I would interpret as 4-6 months.

There are people who deliberately misinterpret suggestions of some selected few to propagate their thinking and then there are potential applicants who are willing to see only the word "SUBSCRIBE" and ignore anything before and after it.

Hope gradually applicants do not blindly chase ever narrowing listing gains and start thinking slightly longer term investments. That should serve them better.

On one side, I believe that ASTERDM to give chance to applicants to exit at least @ issue price , on the other hand I do not completely ignore the possibility of this stock making new low soon. But it is highly probable that stock may not give any significant returns in near term.
Take your own call....depending how much risk you want to take.

12 pm
qib - 0.5020
nii - 0.27
rii - 0.75
----0.57
cold response
muje to lagta he ki qib ya nii pura subscribe bhi nahi hoga.wait till 1 pm.

Aster IPO 57.6% up to 12:00. Aur 90% par Dewar uth jayegi. Am I right?

my estimate
qib - 2x
nii - 0.8x

Qualified Institutional Buyers(QIBs)*             0.51
Non Institutional Investors                    0.28
Retail Individual Investors(RIIs)             0.77
Total                                      0.59

*Excluding Anchor

Total No.of Application Approx : ~ 147020
Retail Subscription on the basis of Apps : 0.64 x

How to cancel the IPO Order Book in HDFC Securities ?

Can any please help. I want to cancel my IPO bit but not able to do it.

Thanks in Advance.

Go to IPO order book, select your order and cancel your BID

SUBSCRIPTION IF ANY ?

Subscription Data

BSE NSE
QIB 0.0018 0.50
NII 0.09 0.17
RII 0.4994 0.18
Tot. 0.27 0.27

at 11.35 issue is 54% subscribed !

Why no one is updating abt today''s latest Subscription figures of Aster ????

Latest subscription status.

qib 0.51
nii 0.27
rii 0.72
----0.57

Guys sharing few statistics and leave the conclusions (if any) to individuals.......

Stock                  Listing Date Close       Current Price       52 week High

Galaxy Surfactants      1698.1                  1660            1742.8      
Amber Enterprises      1237.25                  1192            1328.9
NewGen Software      253                   247 266.7
Astpap                  120                   133             176.6

52 Week High Yesterday Close Current price
Galaxy Surfactants 1742.8 1643.95 1635.1
Amber Enterprises 1328.9 1185.95 1179.55
NewGen Software 266.7 249.3 244.5
Astron Paper 176.6 133.9 133