VERY REPUTED RESEARCH HOUSE EQUITYMASTER SAYS STRICTLY AVOID ASHOKA BUILDCON IPO AS IL&FS TRANSPORTATION IS AVAILABLE MUCH CHEAPER
Ashoka Buildcon Ltd.
Issue Summary ________________________________________
• Type Public Issue, 100% Book building • Shares on offer Fresh Issue of 7.6 m shares (lower band)
Fresh Issue of 6.9 m shares (higher band
• Size Rs 2.25 bn • Face Value Rs 10 per share
• Offer Price Rs 297 to Rs 324 per share. • Pre/Post-issue
promoter holding Promoter holding: 84.3%/73.4%*
• Minimum
subscription 21 shares • Promoters Ashok Katariya and Satish Parakh
• Listing BSE and NSE • Lead Managers Enam Securities Pvt Ltd, IDFC Capital Ltd and Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors Pvt ltd.
• Bid/Issue opens 24-Sep-2010 • Bid/Issue closes 28-Sep-2010
* Assuming dilution happens at higher band
Issue structure ________________________________________
Qualified Institutional Bidders (QIBs) Non-institutional Investors Retail Investors
Percentage of issue size 60% 10% 30%
Minimum Bid/Application size Such number of equity shares so that the bid amount exceeds Rs 100,000 Such number of equity shares so that the bid amount exceeds Rs 100,000 21 Equity Shares
Minimum Bid/Application size Not exceeding issue size Not exceeding issue size Such Number of equity shares so that the bid amount does not exceed Rs 100,000
Objects of the issue ________________________________________
The company proposes to utilize the funds raised via IPO in the following manner:-
Particulars Amt (Rs m)
Capital Expenditure 250
Working capital requirements 450
Repyament of loans 550
Repyament of subsidiary loans 600
The balance amount remaining after meeting the above requirements will be used for general & corporate purpose.
Company background ________________________________________
• Business
Incorporated in 1976, Ashoka Buildcon (Ashoka) is an integrated construction and infrastructure development company. Ashoka’s business is organized across 4 divisions, namely BOT Assets division (20.8% of sales), EPC division (69.5%), RMC & bitumen division (9.7%) and toll collection division. Prior to 1997, the company was solely engaged in construction of residential and commercial buildings. However, post acquiring EPC skills, the company ventured into bidding for contracts on a BOT basis. Currently, Ashoka has interest in 23 road BOT projects totaling approximately 3,500 kms in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Orissa. Out of the 23 projects, 17 are operational while 6 are under construction.
In the EPC division, the company primarily procures raw material & equipment to construct roads for third parties. Ashoka is also involved in building power substations and various commercial and industrial buildings. As of now, the order book stands at Rs 32.5 bn. The company also sells RMC and bitumen. It has 14 RMC plants and one bitumen plant with total production capacity of 650 cubic mtrs per hour and 60 metric tonnes per day, respectively. Ashoka is also involved in collecting tolls on behalf of third parties. Till now, the company has entered into 4 agreements to collect tolls on bridges owned by third parties with the last contract having expired in February 2007.
• Key management personnel
Mr. Ashok Katariya, 61 years, is the executive chairman of the company. He is a gold medalist in BE from Pune University, India. He has previously worked with public health department in Maharashtra. In 1975, he started working as a contractor and subsequently ventured into civil construction and infrastructure development.
Mr. Satsih Parakh, 50 years, is the Managing Director of the company. He has a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering and has been associated with the Ashoka Group since 1982. He is a Member of Maharashtra Economic Development Council. He was also the chairman of the Institute of Engineers, Nashik in 2007.
• Sector
India is on the verge of witnessing a sustained growth in infrastructure buildup. The construction industry has clocked double digit growth over the past five years. As infrastructure plays a vital role in the Indian economy, many experts believe that in order to attain double digit growth, investment in infrastructure sector must be doubled in the 12th five year plan to US$1 trillion. In the 11th five year plan, roads have the second highest investment allocation (after power) across various infrastructure verticals. Although India has a dense road network, it mainly comprises of rural roads. As a result government plans to expand the existing road network by targeting to build 20 kms of highway each day. This might sound a bit aggressive as currently the government is able to execute only 5-6 kms per day. However, it has taken various steps to encourage private sector participation viz; - awarding projects on BOT basis, providing tax exemption for certain years and allowing 100% FDI through automatic route. Overall these plans should boost private sector participation in roads sector.
Reasons to apply ________________________________________
• Long history of timely execution: It should be noted that most of the company’s projects have been executed on time or prior to the scheduled completion date. One of the bridges on Mahad-Pandharpur state highway scheduled to be completed in 12 months was finished off in 38 days. Another bridge scheduled for completion within 18 months was wrapped away in 65 days! EPC projects generally provide early completion bonus while BOT projects generally get the benefit of collecting tolls earlier than expected thereby increasing the tolling period and revenues. In an industry where majority of the companies are plagued with execution issues, Ashoka’s performance certainly reflects its execution skills.
• Well established player in BOT projects: Ashoka was an early mover into the BOT asset development space. The company got its first BOT project in 1997 in Maharashtra when operating roads on a BOT basis was a new concept. After 13 years of bagging the first BOT project, Ashoka, right now has one of the highest number of road BOT projects in India. Currently, the company has interest in 23 road BOT projects with approximately 1,100 operational lane kms. Although this is small in size when compared to IL&FS transportation and IRB Infrastructure the company has already started work on additional 2,400 lane kms and would start tolling on 600-700 kms in the next 3-4 months itself.
• Integrated business model with in house traffic study expertise: The company has expertise to undertake all activities related to BOT projects in house - right from tendering to the collection of tolls. This ensures timely completion of projects and reduces reliance on sub-contractors. The company also undertakes entire construction on almost all of its BOT projects and also manufactures RMC and bitumen thereby reducing cost. Ability to undertake all the construction related work in house enables the company to capture the entire value in the BOT development business including EPC margins and developer returns.
Reasons not to apply ________________________________________
• Inability to refinance BOT projects may impact working capital: In order to generate additional working capital, the company has refinanced its debt taken on the BOT projects thereby increasing the total debt outstanding to about 150% of the project cost. It should be noted that once the project is completed there is no execution risk attached to it and thus lenders are willing to lend more money. However, if the company is unable to obtain refinancing or if the interest rates increase, it might face problems to obtain additional working capital thereby stretching the balance sheet.
• Inability to increase toll rates: The toll rates that the company charges with respect to the BOT projects are established in the project contract and are subject to escalation based on the CPI. This limits the ability of the company to increase toll rates in sync with increase in raw material prices. If the increases in toll rates do not keep pace with the increase in raw material cost it could have a material effect on the operations and financial condition of the company.
• Withdrawal of 80IA benefits: Presently, infrastructure development projects enjoy certain tax benefits under section 80 IA of income tax act. The income tax exemption of various BOT projects expire at various points in time. There is no assurance that the BOT projects will continue to enjoy the tax benefits in future. Further the advent of DTC could significantly alter the taxation regime applicable to various infrastructure development activities.
Financials Analysis ________________________________________
Consolidated financials
Profit & Loss (Rs m) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Operating revenue 1,791 4,031 3,228 5,184 7,956
Expenditure 1,339 2,976 1,994 3,543 5,813
EBITDA 452 1,055 1,233 1,640 2,143
EBITDA Margin 25.2% 26.2% 38.2% 31.6% 26.9%
Interest Expense 212 452 474 646 490
Depreciation a Amortization 243 500 532 645 661
Other income 67 159 176 150 186
Profit before tax 64 262 403 499 1,177
Minority Interest -12 2 34 35 55
Tax 33 18 38 116 319
Net Profit/Loss 43 242 331 348 804
Net Margin 2.4% 6.0% 10.3% 6.7% 10.1%
Weighted Average no. of shares(m) 30.3 38.8 45.4 46.4 46.3
Diluted EPS (as reported by the company) (Rs) 1.4 6.2 7.3 7.5 17.4
Balance Sheet (Rs m)
Net Block 468 1,301 2,084 4,636 9,283
Net Worth 1,472 2,874 3,113 3,473 4,623
Debt 2,458 4,376 5,121 7,226 11,221
D/E 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.4
RoNW 2.9% 8.4% 10.6% 10.0% 17.4%
Concluding remarks ________________________________________
Ashoka Buildcon boasts of one of the highest number of BOT projects in the country. But when compared with established players like IL&FS Transportation (ITNL) and IRB Infrastructure (IRB Infra) on operational lane kms basis, the company lags far behind. Following table gives us an idea as to where Ashoka is placed when compared to the other leading BOT developers.
Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. comparative analysis
Particulars IRB Infra ITNL Ashoka Buildcon
No of Projects 16 23 23
Operational Lane Kms 3,406 4,081 1,099
EV/ Operational lane km 34.9 22.7 25.1*
TTM P/E 29.7 19.2 18.7
* At the higher band
On EV/operational lane km basis ITNL appears to be the cheapest of the lot. Thus if one wants to play on the road BOT story in India there are better option available in the market. Again the core construction business of the company is limited to construction of buildings and power substations and thus lacks diversification. The issue is priced at 17.1x and 18.7x FY10 earnings at the lower and higher band of Rs 297 and 324, respectively. We believe the issue is aggressively priced considering the concentrated order book and operational lane history of the company. Hence, we recommend you to "AVOID" the IPO