Alpex Solar Limited IPO Message Board (Page 8)

Almost impossible tbh; or you apply FF with huge capital

Correct sir,
But still I will say one should divide in other 4 opportunities if having good capital.

Rejeted
Only one retail or HNI

​@Shilpa Agrawal 
To put simply, without getting into details, more the number of lots less number of people applying, so less competition, more chances! 😊😊

​@Vimal Garodia  Thanks for the reply, does it also matter with a unique number of lots like 11 lot ppl are less compare of 13 lot applied making chances for 11 lot ppl bighter or so, or its totally irrelevent ? Just more lots more changes is true for HNI, and Probably that doesnt hold true for Mainborad IPO's . as last time for MainBoard i applied more than 100 lots and got nothing :D very dificult to understand this and everyone struggles to understand the math to have more chances of allotment TIA.

Not really, there is not much of a difference even if we apply with unique number of lots.

In mainboard IPO, there is no difference whether you apply minimum or highest lots in that category (retail or HNI)..
So always apply minimum in mainboard in that category..

Earlier also I replied to u that in NII category of SME IPO applying for more lots increases your chances of getting one lot. Very big application amount can also give you confirm allotment of more than one lot. We are talking about such IPO where that category is oversubscribed APPLICATION WISE

Allotment method of mainboard IPO is different from that of NII category of SME IPO. . I have explained u in detail earlier. In mainboard IPO there is no extra advantage in single application of more than minimum lot or lots prescribed for that category, if that category is oversubscribed APPLICATION WISE

​@Shilpa Agrawal 
For main-board - For each category, allotment is on lottery basis. So doesn't matter how many lots you apply in a particular category, the allotment ratio and chances remain same. So best strategy is, always apply minimum lots in the for the category.

For SME IPO - Allotment is in proportionate lottery basis. There is lottery for each lot, given that particular lot size has enough applications. More lots you apply better the chances of allotment. HTH

In this SME IPO application of 7 lots will have higher chances of allotment of one lot compared to application of 3 lots. Application of 13 lots will have even higher chances of allotment of one lot. Application of 13 lots will have less than five percent chance of allotment of one lot in this IPO

​@investormahesh  , @MVP  and @Vimal Garodia  Thank you folks for reverting helps !! Clear on Mainboard side and SME
It was confusing to me earlier when i had asked.

In mainboard IPO if you are applying in BNII category u should apply for minimum number of lots applicable for that category. Value is slightly more than Rs ten lakh. If you submit application of Rs twenty or 30 Lakh u will not get any extra advantage if BNII category is oversubscribed APPLICATION WISE

Suppose if NII category of an SME IPO is oversubscribed 200 times amount wise then u will have to submit single application of 200 lots to get confirm allotment of one lot. NII category of this IPO is likely to be over subscribed more than 400 or 500 times amount wise

In SME IPO, as 1 lot application is retail & more than 1 lot is HNI.
For retail I understand allotment is lottery based. But in HNI as per comments of higher the lots higher the chances of allotment, please clarify if allotment in HNI is proportionate basis or lottery `basis ?

Suppose if NII category of an SME IPO is oversubscribed 200 times amount wise. If u submit single application of more than 200 lots u will get at least one lot. Allotment will be proportional. If you apply for 200 lots u will get confirm allotment of one lot. If you apply for less than 200 lots u will be included in lottery. Here proportionate allotment means if you have applied for 100 lots your chance of getting one lot is 50 percent. If you have applied for 50 lots your chance of getting one lot is 25 percent. It is for SME IPO. This method doesn't apply in mainboard IPO normally. This comment is not regarding shareholder category of mainboard IPO

​@SUNKARI SUJITH KUMAR If you have 2 different demats with 2 different PANs then apply 2 different applications..

Go for 2 retail apps from both the accounts.

​@capvirgo No, you cannot apply price more than cut-off price 🙏

​@PBPatel 2 lots HNI has theoretically more chance than 1 lot retail assuming same level of oversubscribtion in both the categories..

Bigger the better

You will be able to easily find those required number of applicants for lottery if the issue subscribes by that number of times, apply as per your fund usability and availability

​@Akhileshwar Reddy I am willing to join 8 or 12 lots applications (can try for 3 such applications). But I am still trying to understand the pro-rata + lottery aspect of NII allotment in SME. I went through the link you provided me earlier, and they were very helpful. However can you pls explain me how did you get requirement of 30 applications for 8 lots to be eligible for consideration?.

Also as per the link you had shared, the probability of allotment will depend on 2 assumptions - 1) overall oversubscription in terms of shares, 2) and how many applications are received at different lot sizes.

Assuming 500x oversubscription and assuming that 60% of total NII applications are for 2 lots - I did the below calc, pls let me know if this seems correct:

Shares quota for NII -> 9,24,000
Lot size for NII -> 2 -> 2400 shares
Max allotees in NII category -> 9,24,000 / 2400 = 385 allotees

500x subscription -> 46,20,00,000 shares
60% applications are for 2 lots - > total shares applied -> 27,72,00,000
# of applications for 2 lots -> 27,72,00,000 / 2400 -> 1,15,000 applications

Now, of total NII quota of 9,24,000 shares 60% will be allotted to applicants of 2 lots application -> 9,24,000 X 60% = 5,54,400 shares
Max allotees for 5,24,400 shares -> 5,24,400 / 1200 = 462 allotees (as these allotees will get only 1 lots each)
Hence probability of allotment is -> Max allotees for 2 lot applications : Max allotees of NII quota -> 462 : 1,15,000 (which is basically 2 in 500)

Now assuming Retail also gets oversubscribed by 500x it will have probability of 1 in 500

Hence applying 2 lots in NII category increases the probability by 2X

​@MuStrFc @Akhileshwar Reddy​@investormahesh @Vimal Garodia @Basuvr  - thank you all for the SME allotment guidance till now.

Is is possible for any of you to pls take out some time and explain the probability of allotment for 7,8,9,10 lot sizes?

Thanks in advance for all your help🙏

If NII category of SME IPO is oversubscribed 400 times amount wise and if you submit single application of 7 lots your probability of getting allotment of one lot will be 7/400. If you apply for 8 lots probability 8/400 and so on. If you submit single application of 2 lots or 10 lots or 15 lots or 20 lots u will either not get allotment or will get one lot. More number of lots higher probability of getting one lot. Confirm proportionate allotment for single application of 4 00 lots or more. But if total lots in any SME IPO under NII category are less than 400 lots then u can not submit application of 400 lots. It is for SME IPO. Some persons apply it to mainboard IPO and get confused

​@investormahesh thanks - I just did all the above calculation to arrive at probability of 2/500 for 2 lot application which was such straight forward thing!

Now the imp question is how much oversubscription is likely in Retail vs NII - any guesses?

Sorry I don't make a guess before evening of one day before last date. Better ask this question to some other person

Ready to join you with 8 lots

​@Chirag Agrawal 
Suppose the issue subscribes near to 500 times, then any lot application less than 500 will be put into lottery.
So here we don't have much capacity to apply for such a lot category we as retail investors can combine and apply in a particular lot category where we will be eligible for the lottery based.
So as per the allotment process only those lot categories are eligible for lottery whose total value of bid will be more than 0.5 % of total subscription.
So in case of 500 times subscribtion any lot category has a total value bid of say 250 that will be eligible for lottery.
In our case 250 ÷ (any lot category) = gives the exact number applications to be applied to eligible for lottery if not there is no value in applying all together.
Here 250 ÷ (8 lot category) gives 31.5 i.e approx to 32 applications to be bidded for any 1 applicant to be eligible for lottery and lucky enough to get the allotment.
Suppose there are 64 applications with 8 lot category there will be 2 successful allottees.
In this scenario of 500 times subscribtion retail has 1÷500 chances of successful allotment and if there are 32 applications with 8 lot category there will be 1 successful allotee which transcends to 1÷30 which is far better chance than retail.
This is like small ants trying to eat a big pie.
Thanks and let me know if this is helpful