HCG is a loss making company and in 2015 all loss making company IPO have listed at discount... good company but better avoid and pick up if interested on listing
This Year Alkem has reported a strong performance in six months period ended September 2015. Profit shot up 152 percent year-on-year to Rs 431.3 crore and revenue rose over 34 percent to Rs 2,659 crore in H1FY16 so they have increased the profit almost to the level of last years full year profit of 437.
So fundamental this looks even better so back on envelop calculation 431*2 = 862 Cr at 1050 MC is 12500 @ 862 PE is 14.5 far far far better then any large cap pharma company on NSE
In this IPO i have some reservation. Here is the points:
1. Profit is continuing declining as compare to upward Revenue / Sales 2. Issue Price is high, high P/E as compare to other pharmaceuticals companies like Dr. Reddy, Torrent Pharma, Cipla 3. Market condition will also track this issue, like fed hike rate in this month and USD/Rs. trend.
Price Band: 1020-1050 Lot Size: 14 Shares Min Application : 14700/- Cheque: "Alkem Public offer escrow-R"
20. Septa| Link| Bookmark|
December 1, 2015 11:37:17 AM
(4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)
price band is out according my source the price band is 1020-1050 for face value of Rs 2 this puts market cap 12500 post issue working on a PE of 28 which is same as syngene IPO so clearly big upside for listing gain minimum could Rs 100 do apply and happy applying i will see how is RII is subscribed if is under subscribed which i thing is highly unlikely... but for sure 7 application from my side
Please note dates, price band and lot size are tentative. It is not officially declared.
It is a more than 40 years old company. Fifth largest pharmaceutical company in India in terms of sales. Operating from total 16 manufacturing facilities. Tentative dates of this IPO – 8th December, 2015 to 10th December, 2015. Tentative price band – Rs. 1020 to Rs. 1075. Lot size – 12 to 14.
There are total 23 promoters in this company and they combine constitutes total 53.8% stake. Promoters are planning to sell 10% of their stake. Promoters are looking valuation of Rs 15,000 crore post IPO. 23 promoters quite a big number. Post IPO how many from these gets board member rights is a big question. Purpose of this IPO is not yet clear.
Alkem is largely a domestic company with only 25% of its revenue coming from global markets. Company started operations in US from 2009. Within six years span it shows robust growth in US market from $10 million sales to $100 million sales. Company hopes international market will account for 50% of its revenue in the next five years.
I have last 4 years financial data. From 2012 to 2015 company’s income increases from 20640 million Rs to 33595 million Rs. It shows 20 to 25% increase each year. It shows good growth. Net profit is 4318 million Rs in 2012 and 4370 million Rs in 2015. However, no growth shows in net profit. I think this is becaof company is spending much on expansion, research and US facilities (merger and acquisition).
If we see the Rs. 15000 crore value post IPO, it is available at 33 P/E ratio. Though it looks little high but comparable with big pharma companies in India.
If we compare with large cap pharma companies in India, this company is little different. Alkem’s 75% revenue is coming from domestic market. Please see this is positive for company. Company don’t have to worry for FDA compliance, US inspection etc. for it’s 75% of sales. We know the current situations to Dr. Reddy’s and Sun Pharma. Also, Alkem is the company is operating from the US, using units which are already US FDA complaint and people who are well versed with the nuances. Out of the 16 manufacturing facilities that the company has, five are US FDA compliant two of these are in the US, contributing the largest portion of sales to US. If company get legal notices in future on FDA compliances then it will affect only 25% of it’s sales. Otherwise there is no question on it’s growth.
Market sentiments are also important at the time of listing. I think Alkem will list on fourth week of December, 2015. Major two events will drive market at that time GST bill and Fed rate hike. I think GST bill will pass. Fed will increase rate by 25 bps points on 16th December meeting. Post rate increase dollar is going to be strong compare to euro and other currencies, emerging markets will be weak. However, India is best choice of foreign investors becaof constant economic reform.
Grey market premium is also good. Today (30th November, 2015) in Ahmedabad grey market premium is Rs. 1175. Real buyer and seller. Real transactions.
I suggest everyone to apply for this IPO for listing gain and long term also.
well said and i agree 100% Yes it pricey but potential is huge as vaualtion of indian high but growth is all huge this industry will grow at 20% at least for few decade... apply it top notch company see what they leave on the table
rajeev same was said abt indigo and it has rewarded RII last pharma issue syngene has also given handsome return plus it is profit making large company so all should have such share in their portfolio
Excellent analysis Uchit sir. Domestic market is also very important for pharma sector. Very huge potential for domestic market also after central government is going for healthcare for all.
The issue is quite expensive. But considering the appetite for pharma companies and Alkem being the 5th largest pharma company in India, might attract lots of investors. Hence there will be huge demand for the issue and will command a respectable premium. It may be more than 200 rs close to listing.
The strategy is to have as many application as possible with different family member at minimum lot if the retail subscription is over subscribed.. if not oversubscribed then max lot to max share if you have confidence in the company
FV 2? Costly IPO at price of above 1000. Won''t apply. Also even when the company has grown its gross sales, its PAT is stagnant showing the saturation of its products to add on to its profits. Future prospects dont look bright.So big avoid.
Agree but in last few year company is on expansion mode with US purchase which could have resulted in increase in sales Margin has drop at net profit level what is important to see if GP margin has drop need more info.... the purchase of US factory would have resulted in higher debt not sure but it is very important observation Rajeev Kumar Singh
10. Septa| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2015 11:28:53 AM
(4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)
other then these two 3 more IPO to hit according press trust nuziseed amar ujala narayana hrudayalaya
10.1. Septa| Link| Bookmark|
November 30, 2015 11:31:55 AM
(4000+ Posts, 4600+ Likes)
All before dec 2015 so RII have a good choice to your head not heart