I intend applying strongly in HNI in this one...for me the risk reward stacks up well. Application size will be decided by extent of HNI subscription at 1:45 pm. Keep minting!
The Crow Verdict: You might think AGS Transact is another cash management company but it is not merely one. It is the only company that provides A-Z ATM and cash management. This means logistics, building those ATMs, handling cash, interacting with banks and payments providers. Add to that the POS business, albeit a small part, but which makes it not entirely a business that is involved in cash. I like to see it more of a competitor to if Pine Labs married CMS or SIS Prosegur. Since Pine is looking to list overseas, it then makes sense to compare AGS with CMS and SIS Prosegur. (I was critical of CMS and had not applied.)
The comparison doesn't look good when you consider valuations and financials. For one, AGS is neck deep in reputation mismanagement and debt. Part of this 680 cr OFS is supposed to clean up that image and pay for outstanding NCDs. And I am not even considering the recently recorded losses. Also, CMS and SIS are trading at P/E of 27 and 18 respectively. AGS is demanding 38. There goes the listing pop if you are thinking about it.
But that does not mean it may not do well on the bourses. Although in the cash business, AGS is big enough to survive in the short-to-midterm. It has favourable prospects from the industry, thanks to its global partnership with Diebold and some (4%) exposure to other Asian countries.
All of this makes me on the fence with this issue. That is where GMP and subscription may help. As it looks, this issue does not look attractive to me. But if the GMP shoots beyond 50 and QIB goes beyond 30x anytime in the next 2 days, I will apply with full force i.e. 3 retail applications.
129.1. jajo| Link| Bookmark|
January 19, 2022 10:44:16 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
@Crow, Thanks for the great analysis. Management reputation is one of the measures investors looking for investing in any company. On that score AGS has red flags as not so favourable comments are there about this company. Also in a peculiar way the promotor is reducing the company's huge debt by way of his OFS and the proceeds reinvesting in the company through NCDs on which AGS has to pay interest to promotor! However, the recently listed CMS' good performance will give a favourable response to this issue.
129.3. Crow| Link| Bookmark|
January 20, 2022 10:30:11 AM
IPO Mentor (700+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
@IPO Wizard, From Capital Market: "The consolidated EPS of AGS Transact Technologies for FY2021 works out to Rs 4.6 and offer is made at PE of 38.5 times at upper price band of Rs 175".
Value Research online also mentions it as 38.5. Thanks.
Turn over of 1700 Cr. Debt of 1200 Cr as borrowings with 18% interest (as per their credit rating and drhp)means annual interest is around 200 Cr to pay. profit of last year is 51 cr. Material debt is 300 Cr. Taxation related cases amounting to 295 cr. Salaries have not been paid for 6-7 to 9 months. Bad governance. Poor management. Highly debt ridden company. Their technology partners are now directly india. RBI Canceled their authorization to deploy and Manage white label ATMS...??????? which is their 60 to 70% of business. No analyst disclosed this to Retailers. How they will grow ?????????? Their employees are waiting for salaries and Mr. Ravi Goyal is waiting for public money to pay salaries and debt which has piled up due to his mismanagement and poor business practices.
Red flags - 8 out of 13. QIB Is unlikely to cross 30x. With GMP less than 10% of issue price, this seems like a risky scrip. Plus, something that will further irritate this counter come listing day is the budget speech on 1 Feb. If market rallies like in 2021, we could see an upward trend. If not, discount listing is possible. Have to note that CMS had a flat listing so it was possible to sell that off at zero loss/some profit on listing day.
I am skipping ASBA. Will apply via UPI on retail to get 1 lot. This is a high risk IPO.
Took some risk and applied for 1 retail lot. PB Fintech, ABSL AMC, Sansera, Chemplast, CarTrade, and KIMS recently all had app wise retail subs around 2.5. So, to avoid getting 2 lots, applied only for 1. If I get a lot, good. If I don't, good too.
128. Rafiq| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 5:38:49 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 400+ Likes)
Can anyone advise how many times aaplication wise in Retail?
127.2. K.Atar| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 4:14:48 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
Mam, Good Day to you. It can go either way. Lets not be more hopeful for it. Apply and forget. And keep studying in between to gauge the mood of the market.
121.2. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 2:16:41 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
around -5% to +10% approx, remaining depends on market condition/sentiments during listing time. 165 to 195 listing price approx as of now, will guess later during listing day.
@lokes sir please guide right now holding syntex industry 5000 share average buy was 18 rs now what do i do its continues LC .in hug loss please guide sir
Applied 1 retail application more. Now 2 ASBA and 1 UPI in Zerodha.
121.6. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 3:45:00 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@Share Tiger : sorry i don't track sintex industries, so can't give any suggestions on this. if anyone else holding now or had previously, can reply/suggest here. In small/penny stocks, It becomes painful when you enter at wrong price/timing and then get stuck, so better don't be tempted in future and avoid entering after enough UC run and always put small capital (5-10K) in penny stocks to have less risk. There stop loss also can't save us while in continuous LC's .
121.7. Scrip| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 4:20:59 PM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
@Share Tiger Sintex may follow foot steps of Lakshmi Vilas Bank and Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL).
They have received a total of 4 bids 1. Reliance Industries-ACRE 2. Easygo Textile Pvt Ltd (Welspun Group unit) 3. GHCL Ltd 4. Himatsingka Ventures Pvt Ltd.
Former two are the highest bidders and both resolution plan offers writing down existing equity to zero.
Hence Sintex is in continuous LC. Though shareholders had demanded for fresh bids, but still it is a risky affair.
In search of new Ruchi Soya people are getting DHFL or LVB.
I have attached few articles u may refer them. Also not following this stock but i have read about this news hence commenting.
@helloo Amount will get unblocked before AWL issue close only if no allotment in AGS ;-)
120.4. K.Atar| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 4:12:39 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
@ Hello ji, you are right, it can go either way. but let's be hopeful/positive.
*govt fears the slowdown in rural economy so hopefully it will do something to put more money in hands of common folks to increase spending and support them by some budgetary measures more than existing one (mnrega like). *Not an economist but lets c.
Which is the last date where we should accept the mandate inorder to complete application? I am planning to apply and accept mandate on the basis of sub figure.
Smart investors applying in hni in Ahmedabad . surprise listing?
112. R R Patel| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 1:04:16 PM
IPO Mentor (800+ Posts, 3400+ Likes)
Applied in CMS info due to nice financials, fairly priced, good allotment chances so got allotted n booked profit at 305.
But Iām not applying in AGS Transact Technology. Not looking good so simply avoiding.
112.1. Sharvam| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 1:22:08 PM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 800+ Likes)
Financials of CMS were alluring....I got 5 still holding 3..I don't see such thing in AGS and I think it will list at +/- 5% offer price... I AM NOT APPLYING...
I am also skipping the ipo.. I am holding CMS Info from ipo allotment.. not interested in AGS as not convinced in financials also holding CMS info from same sector..
btw few vested interest members started campaigning for the ipo.. ask them were were they during CMS info ipo ? but take your own decision to apply or not ...
111. Eagleye| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2022 1:38:00 PM
IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)
AGS Transact Technologies IPO
LAST Day at 2:35PM
The following data is assuming the shares will be issued at @175/- (upper price band)
QIB*: 2.52X (*Excluding Anchor) NII: 17.76X RII: 2.90X Total: 5.97X
*RII Applications: 3.96L* Approx No. of Applic-wise: 2.48X