Aether seems to be an excellent company overall. Positives - - Absolute monopoly in most of the chemicals they produce in India. - Superior margins and excellent growth rate. - Capacity expansion of more than double the current in 2 years. - Good relations with customers and CRAMS segment further provides a recurring business model with superior margins. - Global presence. - Will become debt free post ipo.
Negatives - Honestly, I couldn't find anything negative with their company which is worthwhile mentioning here. Their RHP is very clean which is very difficult to see nowadays.
I would rank this company #2 after Clean Science and an absolute PF stock. The only concern here seems to be the expensive valuation in the current market situation. Looking at the QIB figure of approx 15x, i'm willing to take risk and apply here. Maximum downside, if any should be 10-15% but in the long-term, it will be a multi-bagger.
133.1. Jetha Lal| Link| Bookmark|
May 26, 2022 4:12:37 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 2100+ Likes)
Mog ji I will bring your attention to few negatives here: 1. Their raw material is crude derivatives and ongoing geopolitical crisis is not going to calm now so crude price will stay high for this year atleast or Russia-Ukrain cool down (very unlikely now). 2. They have major product and client concentration risk. Single product brings 20% sale and top 20 customers bring 73% of sales. 3. Valuation is aggressively priced in and they should have left some room here. It was very much unlikely because two Pre-IPO placement were done at same price i.e Rs 642 in Nov-21 and May-22 raising 100 crore and 130 crore respectively from SBI MF, IIFL fund and White Oak.
This company is undoubtedly second best after clean science in speciality chemical sector.
@jetha lal Acknowledged sirji! But respectfully point 1 is not an inherent negative of the company but an operating environment risk in which its peers also operate. Point 2 is not that much of a risk as most of the companies that operate tend to have similar concentration risk or more. Crams is a good segment to attract and retain clients for the long term so going forward, i expect this concentration to become diluted. Point 3 I agree. Expensive valuation but they couldn't price it below the 2 placements as that would have created issues with big investors.
I have applied in BHNI category. It will be firm 100% allotment. Hence, restricted myself to 40 lots (920 shares). I am very optimistic about Aether. Let's see what happens.
Disclaimer: Indeed very happy to apply in Adani Wilmar IPO and got 2 lakh Rupees worth of shares in IPO allotment. Have sold more than 55% of shares between 620 and 850 and planning to keep the rest for long term unlike other Adani shares which are way too expensive except Adani ports this shares has basics and growth story. My investment got more than 3.7 times when it was trading at 875.
Note: I have a feeling after going the RHP of Aether that it will give minimum 10% listing gains. Those willing to hold for more than 1 yr might give 50% returns as well as it will quoting at a PE of less than 40. At current IPO price though PE is 72 but is growing with CAGR of more than 40% in Sales and PAT.
129. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
May 26, 2022 4:14:18 PM
IPO Guru (2000+ Posts, 1700+ Likes)
Despite high QIB subscription, retail and HNI ignore the issue. Apply if you want full allotment. Given track record of QIBs forget day 1 support
ABC = I Anything beyond China = India. Happy Investing
127.1. Jetha Lal| Link| Bookmark|
May 26, 2022 4:05:47 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 2100+ Likes)
If nuclear war doesn't happen then next 3 decades is of India. World is seriously thinking about China+1 strategy and now result is showing on ground too. India received highest FDI inflow of $83.5B in FY22. In india Apple is manufacturing iPhone 13, Samsung is shifting major production, Foxconn-Vedanta are making serious investment Chipmaking and many foreign players have shown serious interest (it was one of topic of QUAD submit too), defence equipments are made in india (Tata-Airbus are jointly manufacturing defence aircraft too) and there are innumerous examples.
I have full faith on ambition of people of india and corporate of india. Very Bullish in Indian economy. If you are worried about FII outflow then wait till end of rate hike and then see their inflow (it will be more than what they took out). Russia is out of Emerging market index(which used to constitute 6% of index) when flow will come towards EM market then indian market will be biggest beneficiary.
124.3. Learner SK| Link| Bookmark|
May 26, 2022 3:27:38 PM
Top Contributor (1000+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Is rainbow getting repeated?
124.4. Jetha Lal| Link| Bookmark|
May 26, 2022 3:42:14 PM
IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 2100+ Likes)
@Learner SK ji Every IPO and company is different and we need to analyse individually. Fundamentally both companies are totally different. The difference between rainbow and Aether is free float i.e Rainbow 29% and Aether 10% free float available post listing. MFs(especially SBI shown good interest in this company, it was in two Pre-Ipo placement in Nov-21 and May-22 and it is again in anchor book) and other institution investors have good interest in this company. This company won't go down because of low free float and NII not coming is again a positive sign because they are short term players mostly.
This is going to be good listing irrespective of market conditions... They make specialty chemicals hence QIBs will keep in their portfolio as long term investment...
DIVISLAB available at 31 PE and Aether ipo want 87.22 PE. With EPS rs 7.36 and uppar band price rs 642....When will Greedy banker stop exploiting retail money from Mutual Fund route. Also who are these retail applying this IPO.