High Level Snippet : 3/4 revnue is being generated through products, rest CRAMS/Contrcat Mfg. Given below 7 chemicals forms close to 60% of overall revenue. heavvy reliance on Pharma Intermediatries business (Generics), since close competition is primarily from chinese players ( China + 1 strategy augurs well). Sole manufacturer in India for theese chemicals
Key product line segments : 4MEP (Revenue share : 15.3%), Market share (28%) - Pharma (Hyper Tension)
T2E (Revenue share : 11%), Market share (50) - Pharma ( Anti-Platlet)
MMBC (Revenue share : 11%), Market share (14%) - Crop Protection ( Insecticide)
OTBN (Revenue share : 10%), Market share (8%) - Pharma (Hyper Tension)
NODG (Revenue share : 4.3%), Market share (47%) - Pharma (Anti-Inflamotory)
HEEP (Revenure share : 2.9%), Market share (34%) - Pharma ( Anti-Histamine)
MCT (Revenue share : 2.9%) - Crop Protection ( Insecticide)
Plannted to launch / comercilize anti-retroviral, ant-convulsuant/epilectic Intermediatries etc in FY23
Located near by JNPT / Hazira Ports
Future Financial performance depends on End user performance ( Divis, Ipca, Lupin, Dr Reddy, UPL,Granules, Aarti, Laurus, Indswift, neogen etc)
High Entry barrier for Indian Players
If they repay the debt through intended IPO proceeds , PAT margin can improve significantly.
Forex Volatility need to be moniotored as it derives 50% of revenue through Exports.
Key personel are ICT Alumini and Ex-Anupam Rasayan - seems to be management quality is high
Forecasted EBITDA Margin is in the range of 27-28 % & PAT Margin would be around 18%
EV/EBITDA ~ 40 ( Quite Expensive, but cheaper than Clean science, tatva,Vinati, Navin, )
Networking capital days of 120 will need working capital, Hope IPO proceeds would be leveraged for the same
Very Good Track Record in EHS Compliance & Audits
Raw Material Infalation weigh down on margin/s in short / Medium term
lack of Long term agrements with key customers is a Key concern
need to watch out for Export incentives continuity
High product concentration risk
challenge to maintain past track record of CAGR (50%) as on higher base , it gradually comes down unlike on smaller base in the past
need to look out more export oprtunities in APAC region
cost arbitrage augur well for indian players as avg wabges are lower than china players
Key risk is 20% of customers are contributing 70% of revenue and high dependency on Pharma customers
Long term Investors can Hold / add on Dips.
Short term Investors can book listing gains. Going by Emudra , may not disappoint on listing , but one can expect moderate gains, as still market is hunting value and not willing to take risk in Growth stocks.