Following is the Analysis on Several Indices including Nifty, Bank Nifty, Major Sectorial indices, All F&O Stocks, Small Cap & Mid Cap along with VIX & USDINR and Derivatives Outlook in addition to Global Markets outlook including Crude.
CNX Nifty (CMP 8324):
Two weeks in a row, Index has managed to close above @ 8220-8240 which is 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire fall from 9119 (March 2015) & 6825 (March 2016) & hence Going Forward, till 8290 holds, this rally could extend upto 8510-8543 with some intermediate dips in between.
Only on a break of 8289, Index will retest support zone of 8169-8090 again.
Overall, For the next week, Nifty Range could be 8275 – 8530.
Technically, Key Oscillators RSI, Stochastic & MACD are above their respective averages on the Weekly Charts as well as on Daily Charts leading to buying support on all dips.
On the Derivatives Front,
W-o-W Nifty saw OI dropped by 1.78%, with price moving down by 0.06% W-o-W basis. Highest OI is concentrated at 8200 PE with 49 lakh followed by 8100 PE with 41 lakh and 8500 CE with 44 lakh shares respectively; making a range of 8150-8500 levels in current series.
BANKNIFTY (CMP 18016):
Index for the second consecutive week has managed to close exactly @ 18000 which is 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire fall from 20907 (Jan 2015) & 13407 (March 2016) & hence Going Forward, till Support zone 17850 holds, this rally could extend upto 18600-18650 with some intermediate dips in between.
Only on a break of 17850, Index will retest support zone of 17400-17250 again.
Overall, For the next week, Bank Nifty Range could be 17800 – 18650.
Technically, Key Oscillators RSI, Stochastic & MACD are above their respective averages on the Weekly Charts as well as on Daily Charts leading to buying support on all dips.
On the Derivatives Front,
BANKNIFTY saw OI addition by 4% with price moving up by 0.17%;
NIFTY AUTO INDEX: CMP 8870: Buying Support likely to be witnessed on dips.
Going Forward, Index will get support @ 8600. Till 8600 holds, an upmove upto 9400 would be witnessed. Below 8600, retest of 8300-8150 supports would be on the cards.
NIFTY FMCG INDEX: CMP 21856: Buying Support likely to be witnessed on dips.
Going Forward, Index will get support @ 21650. Till 21650 holds, an upmove upto 22400-22600 would be witnessed. Below 21650, retest of 21300-21200 supports would be on the cards.
NIFTY IT INDEX: CMP 10946: Selling pressure likely to be witnessed on rises.
Going Forward, Index will face resistance @ 11200 & Till 11200 does not cross, expect a retest of 10300-10200 support zone. On a cross-over above 11200, further short-covering possible upto 11750-11900.
NIFTY METAL INDEX: CMP 2224 : Buying Support likely to be witnessed on dips.
Going Forward, Index will get support @ 2150. Till 2150 holds, an upmove upto 2400-2450 would be witnessed. Below 2150, retest of 2080-2050 supports would be on the cards.
NIFTY PHARMA INDEX: CMP 11570 : Buying Support likely to be witnessed on dips.
Going Forward, Index will get support @ 11250. Till 11250 holds, an upmove upto 11950 would be witnessed. Below 11250, retest of 10900-10700 supports would be on the cards.
USDINR (CMP 67.13):
Till USDINR holds 66.70, could witness an upmove upto 68.95-69.50.
Fall below 66.70 will lead to a retest of 65-64.20 zone.
BRENT CRUDE ($ 48.53):
Going Forward, Brent Crude will face resistance @ 51 & Till 51 does not cross, expect a retest of 44-42 support zone. On a cross-over above 51, further short-covering possible upto 54-56.
DOW JONES (CMP 18146):
Dow Jones in the last week has closed 1% positive for the week & closed at the highest level in last 12 months.
Going forward, till Dow Jones holds 17900, it will be on its way for a clear upmove upto 18450-18500. Below 17900, would correct back all the way upto 17400-17200.
US DOLLAR INDEX (96.27)
Till USDINR holds 94.5, could witness an upmove upto 98.50-98.80.
Fall below 94.5 will lead to a retest of 92-90 zone.
NSE Midcap: (CMP 14077)
Index has closed 1% positive for the week outperforming with the broader indices which closed with flat for the week.
Going Forward, Index will get support @ 13800 & Till 13800 holds is likely to move upto 14400-14450.
Break below 13800, retest of 13400-13200 will be on cards.
BSE Small Cap (CMP 11,976):
Index has closed 0.8% positive for the week outperforming with the broader indices which closed flat for the week.
Going Forward, Index will get support @ 11750 & Till 11750 holds is likely to move upto 12350-12450.
Break below 11750, retest of 11200-10900 will be on cards
VIX (15.08):
India VIX has closed 4% negative for the week & Going forward, till VIX does not cross 17 again, Bulls will have an upper hand. Only on cross-over above 17, Index could face pressure & profit booking from higher levels.
Nifty Futures have closed at a 13 points premium compared to 27 points compared to last week.
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