Take away from Analyst meet of AETL for benefit of Chittorgarh members
Novozymes is trading at 35 x of 2017-18 numbers. AETL offered its shares at 25X of 2015-16 profits! Its profit growth last year was 57%! Same or higher growth can be expected in current year. Conservatively As per estimates AETL’s current year can be Q1 at Rs 24 Crores, Q2 at Rs 26 Crores, Q3 at Rs 28 Crores & Q4 at Rs 30 Crores. Thus minimum 2016-17 profit will be Rs 108 - Rs 110 Crores. Thus fair valuation can be 35 x 110 = Rs 3850 Crores!
Novozymes is trading at Running EBIDTA multiple of 22X. AETL’s 2015-16 EBIDTA was Rs 138 Crores. Current year can be Rs 190 to Rs 200 Crores. Even value using past FY number 138 x 22 = Rs 3036 Crores!
Company’s growth rates & profit margins are superior to Novozymes. Only its size is much smaller. But on all financial numbers, we are much better!
*What we like*:
âš—Highly Focused in Human and Animal nutrition
âš—Unique Play on value migration to shifting food habits from junk to healthy.
âš—Well positioned to cater to larger foreign demand based on human nutrition.
âš—Experienced Promoters, family has long lineage of enzyme manufacturing, Professionally run family business
âš—Stable cash flows though slightly stretched working capital.
âš—Mr. Vasant Laxminarayan Rathi, a well renowned enzymologist is the promoter
*What we don''t like*
âš—Growth rates have been timid and capacity utilizations are low.
âš—Overall market potential is growing a steady pace but cannot grow multifold
âš—Excessive family control in such complex business could be a deterrent.
âš—Track record has been good, but less clarity on growth visibility.
Further being the only one company in enzyme space, the stock will attract scarcity premium, opined seasoned analysts.
Dilip Davda
SEBI registered Research Analyst
Mumbai
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