Just 52 week ago, on a Monday like today an IPO was listed. Offer price was 554 , listed at 500 (more than 10% down) in nse and at 490 in bse. Day''s high 530 ,low was 471.1 and ended at 476. I was busy with some work and left around 10.30 am putting a buy bid at 472.60. The bid matured. A friend in this forum expressed his sorrowfulness for not getting his buy bid matured at 470.20. I consoled him with this word that it may be a boon in disguise and he will be able to buy it at 455 next day. But that day has never come.On the next day , as no more downside was there, a friend (not the mentioned one) in this forum ridiculed me - where is your 455 ? , Do you think price will fall everyday ? Even a consolation creates such a reply. Feel how was the pain for not getting in the range of 470. The share has shown a price of 1216 by the time and still trading at 1055. The abovementioned ipo was subs 2.3 times, hni not fully subscribed. Qib 2.3 Everybody see that the time is far better than what it had been one year ago and the subscription of this ABSLAMC is far better . I happen to mention this incidence as from the morning I find some persons are rejoicing at the flat to down behaviour of the share. Some holders are thinking what to do. Now , let us see whether we can take any lesson from it. WHAT IS THE SHARE REFERED TO ?
Every stock trade differently every day as per the presently known facts and future predictions with compare to all other aspects. People might have already learned from the Peer UTI AMC listing, hence today ABSL AMC listing and trading happened in a very thin narrow range. Don''t assume that every succeeded path will always work for other stock. In this share market, no one will be always 100% correct. People here share their success story but at the same time, they hold themself back about their losses.
The ABSL AMC promoters might have priced the IPO as per UTI AMC, leaving little to investors. Moreover upmove of stock market from Oct 20 to Oct 21, may not be repeated for Oct 21 to Oct 22. Hence chances are very less for this stock to move spectacularly from this level. I wish all the best for those who were successful in getting allotment in this stock
@Asoke Sarkar, Good recall about UTI AMC. ( I felt the pain after selling UTI and Angel - huge quantities, seeing no much movements upto 3-4 weeks). My personal Lesson Learnt is holding for long term of good shares will reward handsomely for sure.
@MRavichandran I''m surprised you exited UTI AMC (solid brand name), Angel broking I can understand it was hard to predict it would explode. I remember buying BSE ltd on listing day and it never touched my buying price for a long time. Finally now my patience has paid off and it''s been worth the wait.
Advice is buy at dips..avg it Down ..wait for a year or more.. see the magic. And we all know how cnbc and zee manipulate people''s mind into selling, so that their friends can buy at cheap prices and sit with holding. Prime example is cartrade...
@ Ultrasnow This is a simple narration without any conclusion . What riddle do you see ? Share market itself is a laybrinth. So no conclusion is possible. I have working conclusion for myself only. Sometimes riddles created in your mind as for the other day when I discussed a matter related to a matter 10 years ago , you told that a time frame is taken to support something but oct 21- 10years =oct 11 . and 10 years is the initiation of a very long term. I did not react that time but see you much too impatient.
@ Spock What you say in the posts have not hitherto been known to anybody. So you are the first man to invent it . Nor have I told that ABSLAMC should take the course of UTIAMC. It was a simple narration relevant to the situation. That you take the case of braking yesterday''s low is not comparable as for UTIAMC it was 15% low from the issuse price while for this one it is about 4.5%. UTIAMC did not give any scope for that reason while for this one further downside may be possible. So, what you refer to is already to my knowledge. By the by , UTIAMC crossed it issue price on 16/4/21 i.e it was in hibernation for six months.Thereafter it was doubled in less than five months. Again I am saying all these to counter as if it has no prospect but it is not any apple to apple comparison. Thanks
485.11. jajo| Link| Bookmark|
October 12, 2021 11:39:30 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
In addition to capital appreciation of over 100% UTI AMC also paid good dividend, last payment was Rs 17 per share.
Those who are thinking it will replicate UTI etc are naive. Market had a great run since the time UTI was listed. There are hardly any stocks which have not got doubled or tripled and so on since then. ABSL amc has come at the time when market is at its peak and at the pricing was at very high valuation which does not leave any room for appreciation in near term. A correction in market will pull it down accordingly.
A news report in Moneycontrol site today has given P/E , comparison of the four listed AMCs. P/E (FY 21) of ABSL AMC is 38, UTI AMC is 27, Nippon AMC is 41 and HDFC AMC is 47. From this chart it can be seen that ABSL AMC IPO is priced much costlier that UTI AMC, though little cheaper than Nippon of HDFC AMCs
Looking at the existing financial results , it seems their business was affected due to covid, so hopes are high for last 2 quarters as restrictions were eased. One can accumulate if it falls to 650 before results. I''m personally averaging it For investment
More than 87.83% AR in Buyback of the shares of R Systems. Reasonably good profit is earned. All the credit to ANIKET JI for his kind remarks n opinion in this regard. 50% of original holdings were already sold in the open market @ Rs.224/. Out of the balance of the remaining 50%, 87.83% shares are accepted in the buyback. I shall be ever n ever grateful to this gem for his valuable views from time to time. I am sorry, I canβt keep quiet without expressing my gratitude n happiness. Thank you.
I humbly submit that I am not an expert in this regard. I am hopeful that the deal would not be a remarkably loss making one. Sorry, if I disappointed you. By tomorrow evening, the final AR will be known. Let us wait and see. All the best to you. Thank you.
Which are the other buybacks open currently apart from Goldiam (price is high so not sure if i can enter now) & Nucleus (will enter at around 580). Any other buybacks you are tracking?
Thank you for your valuable and enriching insights.
Anandi ji, I have started purchasing the shares from 02/8 in a phased manner. Normally, it takes around two months time to complete as you have rightly understood. The percentage of net profit is around 12%. As I have been reiterating, I am a contended one and am happy with even minimal profit. I enjoy seeing things moving smoothly, even in a slow pace. Happy investing to you. Thank you.
Unknwon ji, It all depends upon oneβs attitude n ambition. If I were you, I would have entered at the CMP of even around Rs.960/-. The company is said to be a good one n having opportunities for good potential growth. However, the average price of my holdings is around Rs.940/-. Thank you.
For 1 lot application in Shareholders quota, 100 out of 316 applications will get 1 lot allotment on lottery basis For 2 lot application in SH Quota, 200 out of 316 applications will get 1 lot allotment on lottery basis For 3 lot application in SH Quota, 300 out of 316 applications will Get 1 lot allotment on lottery basis For 4 lots onward applications, no of shares allotted will be (no of shared applied)/3.16
This will be the basis of allotment in shareholder quota
My friend ,you don''t understand the word proportionate. ... What you are saying is just a thought out of your mind.. please do read the BOA once it comes out.
478.4. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 7, 2021 8:59:59 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Nand... Thanks for BoA info. I understand that Retail subs nums fell due to non approval of UPI. Any idea how HNI num declined by 63% and SH category doubled when it was 1.68x at close on last day. Do they have any other offline way to apply which doesn''t get captured on last day?
478.5. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 7, 2021 9:07:35 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Monster... Pls chill down. Nand calculations are entirely correct. SH category Allotment is exactly the same as NII. Proportionate means proportionate in every lot like 1lot, 2lots, 3lots etc as a separate category depending on number of applications received in that specific category
@sdz..you mean to say..if i had applied for 2 lots..i would have received 12.5 shares????? As allotment..π
478.8. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 7, 2021 9:23:07 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
Sometimes you are really a monster and sometimes a master π
478.9. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 7, 2021 9:40:10 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Monster...No, not 12.5 Eg: total subscription is 3x Say received 30 applications who applied 2 lots =30*2=60lots in this category. 60/3x= 20 lots on lottery basis 1lot is allotted to 20 applications out of 30
I know many people explained this to you multiple times and still you ask same question. Not sure if you are a zero and don''t understand the methodology or go by your first name and be a monster π€π
@sdz, I am also clueless regarding increasing subscription in sh category. Also I have no idea about hni subscription reduction. I got this information and shared here. What is being cooked inside, is really unknown. If somebody knows, how suddenly sh subscription increased, please update here
@team chittorgarh, do you have any idea regarding increase in shareholders quota subscription figure suddenly
Share holders applied for more than 15 lots bids were included in HNI category, and who have bided up to 14 lots were counted as retail share holders. After closing of the issue both amalgamated , so you see sudden jump in share holders category and sudden fall in HNI category. I think it''s clear now.
478.12. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 8, 2021 10:38:02 AM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@NandParwal...I don''t understand one thing, If more bids get added into HNI from SH category, allotment shares should fall in HNI due to more demand and increase Allotment in SH. But what happened is the opposite na dude π
SDZ , you read message again. Share holders quota is more subscribed then appears. HNI quota is less subscribed then appears. So share holders alloted less than expected and HNI alloted more than expected.
@ Nand.. That is the first logical explanation of HNI - SH switch and may be correct. Let''s wait for BoA. Still if that is the cae, mentioning SH applications in HNI category at the first place was misleading to many.
ragistar k fintech make big mistake in allotment now we do compline whith sebi or nse
478.17. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 8, 2021 6:18:13 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@NandParwal.. you mean to say any AB shareholder whoever applied under HNI category or Retail category were pulled into SH category? Registrar cannot do so
As Basis of allotment published in financial express , it shows Shareholder category subscribed 3.22 times and after rejections it was 3.16 and HNI subscribed only 2.69 times and Retail it was just 2.36 times after rejections So i think no movement of SH category to HNI but the updates given in Exchange is showing wrong values.( not sure how)
Somebody has applied for 3.5 Lakh shares in SH category
Big Brand Big sized ipo P/E at par with industry P/E(Nothing left in table for investor) Below par subscription Low GMP(+5% approx) Flat or slightly negative performance in listing day(inspite of positive market sentiment) I think those days are gone when almost every ipo used to give listing gain Pricing is the most important factor for a big sized ipo nowadays(ipo size>2000 crores)
I am not used to see such a flat and stable line because of recent IPOs, though happy for you both. Best wishes... @SDZ I am ready with Cash if it nears 650 :)
472.4. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 11, 2021 1:23:18 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Avenue. Haha be ready with cash, looks like 650 is a given thing but will you postpone buying there and say lets wait for 600? π
@ Avenue. This ipo is asking your more time and efforts.. and also charged bit money :)
@sdz.. correction a poor girl*. Well its require high sense of humour to crack that one π.
@ mravi. I don''t think it will move north direction in upcoming days.. as many charming ipos are in lineup.. as soon as the date''s announce retailers surely gonna pull out money from it.. u hve big exposure in this script.. b cautious.. this 15-20k loss not going to make any scar on u .. we all knws that..
472.7. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 11, 2021 3:44:28 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Noorul... Haha got it. First surprised to see that message from you, then thought may be you were in ultra light mood and must be planning for Eurotrip nearby future π
472.8. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 11, 2021 3:51:58 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Noorul... You need to put an extra zero beside the number you mentioned for MRavi in the message. Or you meant 20k loss per every 1rs fall?
@sdz .. hve been to europe ones.. but couldn''t done such stuff.. was with my better half.. was in funny mode as this ipo unnecessarily wasted time and efforts of many.. and listed in flat.. and mravi had a huge allotment in that.. i should had mention 4 to 5 lakh instead.. now its breaks 700 level so next will b 650.. better get off from this shrinking ship..
@Noorul, @sdz, Thanks for your concerns, appreciated. As i said before, i did not apply for listing gain. i dont mind much even if it goes to 650 (but i dont think. FII, MF will start buying it and price will go up in coming days/weeks). I will wait for atleast two Q results. btw, i have enough money for future IPO''s and plan to sell some long holding secondary market shares depending on the upcoming results.
Remind me of UTI AMC, patience is the key here, ABSL AMC is top in terms of AUM and just like HDFC AMC and UTI, it will fly. Still holding UTI and HDFC and will hold this as well.