Many members here are saying that free float is very less in this ipo becaz promoters holding still remain 86.5 % after listing. Fair point.... but somewhere its creating a confusion in my mind.. as the over all size of issue is 2800 cr aprox. 50% of its in hands of hni and retailers that makes it 1400cr , its big number.. now assume it, lets 50 % of its in strong hands.. but remaining 50 % still available on listing day thats enough for creating selling pressure and adding to it short sellers.. experience people knows what damage they can make any given day... I personally didn''t applied in it. As i look for listing gains mostly.. I would b pleased if someone enlighten me regarding this free float doubt... Thanks in Advance..
225.1. ipo share| Link| Bookmark|
October 3, 2021 7:57:25 PM
IPO Guru (1600+ Posts, 800+ Likes)
@nurool Absolutely correct. HNI-55,40,400 shares (Rs.394.48 cr.) + RI-1,29,27,600 shares (Rs.920.45 cr.) + Shareholders-19,44,000 shares (Rs.138.41 cr.). Total-2,04,12,000 shares worth Rs.1453.34 cr are free float and available for listing day transaction. Thus, a very large number of shares excluding QIB who can''t sell before 1 month. All the HNi and maximum Retail & Shareholders will be there to book profit on listing. So huge pressure will be there. Considering large issue size and high valuations, I also skipped the issue.
Free floating share is 1937 cr.out of 2768 cr. The matter is all the same like other ipos except where retail potion is 10 % or rii & nii not fully subscribed . There may be points beyond that.
@ ipo share.. making u correct.. even qibs can sell on listing day.. dats makes floating shares near about 1900cr theoretically.. only anchor investors are restricted for one month period... @ ipo trade. I said i didn''t applied.. so whatever gmp hardly matters for me.. i wish it will list above 900 so investors will party hard..
@Noorul.. There is difference in funding based HNI and self funded HNI. In this IPO I believe most of the HNIs are self funded and they can hold shares in some quantity if required. Also, MF has applied for 2100cr of shares against 1800cr available excluding anchor. I have analysed past data and when this ration is more than 1 then generally lists with some premium. I have applied. Fingers crossed.
Jyada socho mat so jao. Kisiko pata nahi listing kaisi hogi aur listing k baad kya hoga
225.6. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 4, 2021 12:03:21 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
For an IPO to be success... I think it should hold atleast one of these 3 points: 1. Good funda and Lower issue price than expectations 2. Craziness about the stock or 3. Stock manipulation by operators (buy in bulk at low price and reduce float)
AB AMC failed in both 1 & 2. For 3, it is high free float and so tough to manipulate
Positive about this IPO, based on timing. 1. Only one IPO to be listed on that day. Not like the case of CaretradeTech or similar ones, where we have 2 or 4 IPO parallel listing. 2. 2nd Market Leader after HDFC in Mutual Funds and correspondingly P/E is fairly adjusted with scope of 5-15% increment on Listing day. 3. Currently market is adjusting slight correction and by that time IPO gets listed Market should be in good position. 4. Fair QIB subscription. Above Average in NII & RII''s, but overall looks Good. 5. None of the Reviews / Ratings for this IPO is Negative. If you refer all previous IPO''s, Discounted listing happened only, if atleast one of review is avoid, especially from capital markets. NOTE : I am not talking about the case, where review is negative but got good listings. 6. Most of the People know about Mutual Fund names. Indirect knowledge induced to one''s mind.
Negative about this IPO, based on timing. 1. If market starts it''s BEAR run or severe correction happens, then only can think of discounted Listing 2. If traders start to play game, then may see discount listing for a day or two.
Thanks for taking time to post your analysis, there is always something to learn. Lets see, how it turns up. All the best to all allottees, in advance.
Most shares are with promoter and listing day gain gang have skipped this IPO, so in general long term holders have applied. So who will sell? Expect low supply and surprise listing.
Sebi Notice To Ramdev: जल्द ही पतंजलि के स्वामित्व वाली रुचि सोया फॉलो ऑन पब्लिक इश्यू यानी एफपीओ लाने वाली है। सारी तैयारियां हो चुकी हैं और सेबी से इजाजत भी मिल गई है। लेकिन एफपीओ लाने से पहले ही बाबा रामदेव ने कुछ ऐसी बातें कह दी हैं, जिन पर विवाद हो गया है। हालत ये है कि सेबी ने बाबा रामदेव को नोटिस थमा दिया है। दरअसल, बाबा रामदेव ने आस्था चैनल पर एक कार्यक्रम के दौरान योग करने आए लोगों को करोड़पति बनाने की गारंटी दे दी है।
219. Bullish| Link| Bookmark|
October 2, 2021 11:38:54 AM
IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 600+ Likes)
Jab ye 1000 pe list hoga to sab ki eyes open hi reh jayegi 😄🤣
My pick for long term.. HDFC and SBI from banking. Sun pharma and Laurus labs from Pharma, Tata chemical from chemical, Tata Power from Power.. currently doing monthly sip in all of these. Also thinking of adding CAMS for long term. Will buy some shares of CAMS tomorrow.
People who invest directly in stocks bypassing Mutual Funds are applying for AMC. . So in first case, they consider themselves better than MF managers but in second case they trust the MF managers.
214.1. Scrip| Link| Bookmark|
October 2, 2021 10:56:17 PM
Top Contributor (500+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
so by that theory
those u purchase direct plan instead of regular plan are also having same attitude.
as mf invest in basket which may have their broker''s stock in the portfolio
so on one hand they are not considering their broker''s advice and on another they are investing in MF which holds their broker''s shares
??
214.2. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
October 2, 2021 11:10:04 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
@vmaru: no logic in this....people who apply in mutual funds doesn''t mean they don''t buy stocks directly and vice versa.... and now this AMC is a listed company in which other than MF managers there are other growth factors also...
214.3. hbk| Link| Bookmark|
October 3, 2021 12:04:08 AM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
So what does this mean? When AMCs invest in other Listed AMC peers stocks via their MF schemes? Most financial literate investors have diversified portfolios. Ranging from Debt, FDs, MFs, Stocks, etc.
Now its looks like lame ipo and may b a bet for long term investors.. Subscription figures isn''t eye catching yet.. Secondary market in red zone from last 3 days.. Gmp allmost vanished.. and one more thing that makes me hesitate is the size of issue is equals to Car Trade.. I m skipping.
@Noorul ji Thank you for posting this, such clear guidance in such simple words is really appreciated. Are you completely skipping? Not even trying for one lot in RII?
A dialogue from movie Sholey "Itna Sannatta Kyon Chaya Hai Bhai" :) Some Zeros are missing in subscription figures. I was not expecting such low figures for such a big name IPO inspite of being a big size IPO. If things does not improve in last hours, this stock may be available at 595-612. Though I also agree that it is a good investment for long term perspective.
@Noorul, Got your point. Many reasons for this poor participation. secondary market is down, this may be little expensive, large size...etc
Purely on long term prospective, and also all the AMC''s are doing well, and future AMC business is very bright, Birla AMC will come good (in one year time frame). On this basis, I went at FF. (I also notes that this may list at discount, if market down)
MRavi....Vanakkam I think sometimes it pays to lie low. If you have a feeling this one may get a discounted listing, may be you could have gone not FF but HH (Half-hearted).
@Eklavya, Vanakkam. I don''t feel it will list at discount if the market stays normal (only if market down) Sometimes, I don''t follow closely in Secondary market to catch them. Also, I felt some confident after UTI AMC, (Birla is bigger name, surely will go up in few months or a year time).
@Niteen.. i didn''t applied a single lot.. Btw society is really heading towards a wrong direction.. veterans r looking for long term investment where as younger including me also r looking for quick money..
have applied for 1 lot from 4 retail accounts, because of time and efforts spent on this IPO.
209.9. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 1, 2021 5:01:05 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Noorul... Leaving aside how successful the result will be, You take crisp decisions with your reasoning and clarity of thought without leaving any confusion 👌👍
@Noorul, Good one about Veterans and Youngsters. not sure if that''s the case. My bet is still huge with 30760 lots (possibility of getting 2 to 3 Cr Rs/ of allotment of single IPO at the time when i applied).
All, I want to correct my message above in this thread, its actually 3076 Lots. (Thanks MogPunisher)
@SDZ, I fully agree. I like the way @Noorul @lokes, you and many others: to give good reasons, analysis, pro and cons. keep posting and guiding many including me. After all its the individual who is going to take a decision depending on his or her own risk appetite..etc
@ Avenue.. i really like that reason of applying.. @sdz.. these days i m playing bit safe .. or become a conservative kind of investor u can say.. All the others congrats for allotment in advance as its almost certain.. and i wish 11th morning will bring smile on ur face..
@Noorul, BTW I sold remaining Exxaro Tiles 837 shares @ 159 a few days back. I thought of informing you as I has bought them only seeing your and eagleeye remarks.
209.15. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 1, 2021 6:08:26 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Avenue...Wow congrats. So surprisingly Exxaroo turned out to be the best IPO after Devyani in that 8 IPOs set. Still remember not applying in it expecting high NII subscription but it did only 5x
@sdz Those were the days when we used to have 2-3 Mainboard IPOs every week. Currently still no news of new IPOs :( During those times we used to chalk out a strategy to use the funs in the best way for multiple IPOs and nowadays we''re getting only one IPO in 1-2 weeks and that too mostly overpriced.
@mog punisher We can open Equitas savings bank account which is providing 7% interest ( for balances more than 1 Lakh) till new IPOs are confirmed it would be useful for HNI as well to earn decent interest as well.
Better keep less than 5 lakhs ( max limit for DCGC insurance ) or keep under multiple accounts
these days Equitas has given ASBA facility in online banking too
209.19. sdz| Link| Bookmark|
October 1, 2021 7:08:45 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 500+ Likes)
@Mog... I like good IPOs to be lined up one after one every week without any overlap. Don''t want to take allocation pressure with already available less funds into multiple IPOs and losing out in all 😀
Shyam vs. Dodla Clean vs. GRIL Zomato vs. Tatva Devyani vs. CarTrade ( before listing 😜) etc
@avenue... Car trade is really a most disappointing ipo of the year.. and in aptus my vision was clear from beginning that only sacrificing lambs were going to participate.. well i made exit in car trade vary first day.. i came to knew it would run in reverse..
I used to get allotment only in losing IPOs like Suryadaya SFB, IRFC etc. Suddenly my luck changed a bit when I didn''t get allotment in CarTrade and got allotment in Zomato. Zomato I sold next day @130. Bought CarTrade @1292. Though it went much lower but recovering.
I have given a miss to this IPO as I thought I can be able to buy at much lower price from secondary market
209.25. lokes| Link| Bookmark|
October 2, 2021 2:16:39 PM
IPO Guru (4400+ Posts, 5100+ Likes)
i have applied in 2 retail applications only....and i will exit this time in 1-2 days if getting even 10% profit or more since i feel if market support it can give 5-15% gains on first day as QIB numbers are good but after 2-3 days it may go down and in long term it may be good bet.... In some of recent ipos, mostly went down after initial some days of upmove like GLS, Sansera, aptus, vijaya diagnostic....i feel same will be the behavior of this one in short term at least....