Adani Wilmar Limited IPO Message Board (Page 1)

Result already out

Adani Wilmar Q3 net profit rises 66% & revenue up 40% as per news.

Share recovered from lows after Q3 results announcement & it was up over 2% now.

results are out and are good....but since share already had good run up in last week and markets also falling a lot so i don't think it will show further up movement in share prices soon....once things will stabilize then share price later may move again after some retracement

Ok. Thanks.

@Finsure
@Gavin
@lokes
Thanks for sharing your views!

@All Time:

Results are excellent when compared both YoY and QoQ inspite of inflation in the previous quarter.

Standalone EPS increased to 2.1 last quarter. If we annualized EPS it will be 7.5
For FY23, it may reach even 10.5 to 11 if we consider even 50% growth in profits.

So if we consider for FY22:-
a) 50 PE it should trade at 375
b) 60 PE it should trade at 450
c) 70 PE it should trade at 525

If we consider for FY23 on a conservative EPS of 10:-
a) 50 PE it should trade at 500
b) 60 PE it should trade at 600
c) 70 PE it should trade at 700

But compared to FMCG companies like HUL, Dabur, Marico its EBITDA and Net Profit Margins are less but their Revenue and PAT are growing in single digits or low double digits whereas Adani Wilmar Revenue and PAT are growing in excess of 30 to 40%.

It has largest market share and therefore Market leader in Edible oil business with Market share of 18.6%. Their FMCG and Industrial essentials business is growing exponentially every year.

AW Revenues for FY22 will be in excess of 55000 cr and their Market capitalization is less than 49000 cr. So Market cap to sales is less than 1 where as Paytm/Zomato which are loss making are trading in excess of 15 times Price to Sales. Agreed cannot compare business models of these varied companies but why they should be given so much of valuation in spite of loss making. Is it not a Food for thought.

Just imagine if they are able to expand GPM and NPM by reducing expenditure and Finance costs their profit will grow multi fold and stock will become very cheap on forward looking basis and markets are indeed forward looking. With IPO process they are retiring their debt by almost 60% and Debt/Equity will be less than 0.25, so their Finance costs of 143 cr last quarter will be flown to profits directly and this will get reflected in future quarters as well. Also their group company Adani Enterprises is famous for making inorganic acquisitions and they have collected proceeds from the IPO for the same.

Last but not the least: This AW comes from Adani brand and Gautam Adani being the richest person in India right now overtaking Mukesh Ambani is connected to political circles. Projects and approvals will be done faster. Their stocks (Adani Enterprises, Adani Gas, Adani Green, Adani Transmission) have all given multifold returns in last 2 yrs. In some of the cases in excess of 10 times.

Risks factors to consider mostly from Macro factors than any company specific:-
1. Fed hikes (upto 4 rate hikes in this CY factored by market). If inflation does not come under control in next 6 months then 1 or 2 more hikes can be expected.
2. Russia-Ukraine war : Chances are slim as world powers will diffuse the situation by convincing Russia and NATO/Ukraine also have to agree to some of Russia's demands. This may go on for some days and hopefully it should resolve by this month end. If war really happens then no stock can escape the selloff that happens globally even though probability of that happening are rare. World cannot afford any war at this stage especially after 2 years of corana pandemic. Hopefully better sense prevails for global peace and harmony.
3. Crude oil increase in excess of $100 either due to war or OPEC not increasing production or US-Iran deal called off.

Note: Market is best teacher and we students will always be never ending learners. Never ever invest more than 20% of your wealth in Stock market unless market valuations are mouth watering like pandemic year 2020.

@venture stack parteners,
Results is Good 👍of Adani wilmar.
Please advice at present market trend regarding adani wilmar hold or saleor wait.
Please share your views.
Thanks

Festival demand impact seen...next few quarter lower net profit there

Its only for state elections , after that it will be back to usual duty like 18 or 24 per cent .

@Cautious Proprio:- Don't give wrong info if you don't know. Reduced duty is valid upto 30th Sep, 2022 and can be extended further as well based on the situation at that point of time where as state elections results will be announced on 10th Mar.

After election doesn't mean immediately after election..maybe after few months like sept or oct...its not petrol or desel types which is certain soon after poll..

You like Modi or not, we should appreciate inflation is largely contained at range of 5% in last 7 years with some quick actions on imports/exports. Some seasonal items may go up and oil may go up here and there. But overall inflation in the range of 5%. This is good for common man.
Remember the old days of 14% inflation.

Now back to politics.. :D

Bhai, Tu LIC Application Ke Ready Hote Jaa.

I HOPE YOU HAVE NOT SEEN MY NOTE

At what price you sold?
My personal opinion, it may stay range bound today, and close near previous closing if not above. I dont think LC is possible, not unless results on Monday are bad/average.

It can blast up on Monday, if results are good. So you can re-enter at lesser price you sold at, if possible.

TODAYS LOW 351
BUY ON DIPS 350 -325

I sold all at 405rs..
Near 350 .. to enter again.

Today one time it reached 350 near but I spend time thinking and it came up easily 😢

@True IPO Lover : if prices comes around 320 due to market fall or due to results reaction anything....then that can be good re-entry levels for long term...i am holding all my 6 lots for now and will sell 2-3 lots tomorrow or on tuesday after results, even if share goes down or higher to book profits....and will be holding remaining lots for much longer duration....
Dmart and Jubiliant kind of stocks performed so well in last 3-4 years....and it can also do good in longer run....i know sector is different , just saying due to kind of growth and high PE they are getting....

This forum is very useful, I am new in the market. I have learnt so any things. I thank all the experts of there advice on adani wilmar.

i have sold 4 lots today at 390...remaining 2 lots will hold for longer term.....
it may come down in short term then i may buy again more shares around 300-320 suppose if it comes....

it bounced back from same expected levels as mentioned above....300-320....good to see price upmove today

@chemcho.. i too felt so and sold 75% allotted shares at 385 yesterday. But we never know when operators will dump 400 or 500. 10% circuit from today. Hope all genuine short-term investors will come out safe and good profits 👍

@chemcho Sir I have one lot.... Should I sell partially at cmp Or wait ? Please suggest

I GAVE RS 400 TATGET BUT IT WENT UPTO 419
NOW OPERATORS ARE DUMBING AT THEIR PRICE
TILL 351 BUT NOW RS 383 TO 380
I DO NOT NOW THEIR GAVE I HAVE SOLD AT RS 408 TO 412
AND HOLDING PROFIT SHARE OF ZERO VALUE

@ shreyas Mabian
how many shares you have
buy @ Rs 325-355 if you get

@chemcho Sir I was alotted one lot... Today I booked partial profit @411 to safeguard my capital 😅... Now I'm having 30 shares... Sure Sir I'll add some quantity between 325-350...Thank you so much for your guidance Sir... Last time also because of you I've added Sona BLW @330 Now I'm enjoying profits...

What is the maximum for Adani green sir from 40 to 1900 and for Adani gas from 120 to 1800....Any views....

#Ipobull
Any news about medplus Q3 result ?

@prasen MEDPLUS Q3 result on 14 feb not today

If you have analysed Zomato result then loss narrowed down due to "Other Income" of 464 crores. On gross margin front it is just slight improvement.
Though it is good price to accumulate but don't expect any big positive movement in near term in any new age companies because they were running only because of FII and they are pulling out and there will be more outflow because of aggressive Fed rate hike.

@ipobull please see Zomato results carefully ..looses are borrowed due to exceptional item which is one time adjustment....so don't misguide here please

*narrowed

Holding for long term..
Expert please suggest ..

Clean Science @ 1633
Data Pattern @ 745
Rossari Biotech @ 1250
Medplus Health @ 1083
Adani Wilmar. @ 230
HDFC Bank. @ 1475
Bharti Airtel @ 674

Need IT stock (TCS,INFOSYS OR WIPRO or HCL)
Current level IT stock looking attractive.