Current Publish share available for Adani Ent is 31.2 Cr shares. Where LIC hv 4.8 cr shares and foreign porfolio Investor have 17 cr shares & one foreign company have 4 cr shares . So you can get idea how these shares have high demand from FPI and FII.
Nine - ten years ago , I bought shares of Gitanjali gems and Adani enterprise on the same day both at a price of Rs 120/-. Within a short period of time , I left the former with 4 fold return whereas the later proved to be unconvincing and I exited it with a little gain. Now see where is the Gitanjali gems and where this Adani shares. Now , I see that fpo(pp) has come with a price of 3276 whareas the 52 week high is shy of 4200. So the question is why pp ? Simple answer is that the Adani group ahares have been receding. Adani enterprise has shown a phenomenal run from Rs 137/- in march 20 to near 4200 in 2022. Eps 9.67 ; p/e 357(entered nifty this year with p/e 414) p/ bv 29 .8 . I don' t believe in that any business can bring such prosperity in a such short peiod of time nor is it reflected in the financial of the company. The company has been in business from 1993 but its share price appreciation in the covid period.So it may reasonably be called a covid child than Modi benedicted as much as this share had been in price segment of 80 - 160 prior to the covid run. So I am not with the school of thought that it will hold so long as Modi Sir is there. The company could have come out with ordinary FPO but not because they know well that in this present scenario it is difficult to get through at this high price.So has enticed common people to enter at a lower price and get an encumbered one. Arun sir has shown the gain on interest point for lesser payment at the outset but the actual amount will be about Rs 64 - 128 depending on the time assessment of 6m to 1 yr. Not to forget that 5% diluation in this case amounts to erosion of 170 price point and eps etc shown earlier is subject to 5% retraction. Some friends are inquisitive to know what will be price of the share in 2024.None has answer to this question .Any estimation can go a begging.But the ' Cautious ' estimation of Rs 2380 gives a very danger signal.In that case one who has a pp will be forced to pay the call money @ some 1600 and he will suffer a loss of 800 - 900 and if he does not participate, the pp is relinquished and the loss is about 1600. Whereso, I am not interested in this deal of fpo for long/medium term gain. Interestingly, movement of pp on and after listening often have different dynamic. I may be interest in the trading of it at the point of convenience. One should take decision as per conviction.
114.1. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
January 23, 2023 7:29:39 AM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
Only one fact you seem have ignored that while share base will increase then there will be some earning on amount raised i.e. Rs 10000 crore why ignore that. Price by book will fall as this issue is very high premium to current book 2ndly Adani share price was 738 way back in 2015 before restructuring. Why pick a point in time just to prove your thought. Price movement does not look that steep from that date
@Arun Sir, Thank you for your response. I know that you are a well conversant man in this subject. In the write up , I have not discussed the effect of the amount raised by the company in the fpo (to avoid disputes. ) You know better than me how sale of shares in a dilutive fpo increases total book value of the company cosequent upon the increased asset but out of nothing and other matters related in this subject. After 30 years of business, book value of the share is Rs115.27 and of the company is 13141 cr which will jump to 276.8 (2.4 times) and 33141 cr respectively with this action. No tax is required. What a funny thing.Moreover , there will be 400 cr increase in M cap if the price of 3276 is conserved. So , this action will do something 1.4 times more what the 30 years business has done.It is the instant effect. Now , you are also correct that the amount of 20000 cr will bring forth further income . Somebody may even pre- calculate if the BV (Total asset - intangible asset - liability ) is 13140 cr then what will be proportional eps , share price , M.cap etc etc for BV of 33140 cr and may act accordingly. I know you will remind me of the equality - Asset = liabilities + share holder's equity
But this is what happens. And we are to make our ways through these pitfalls. One should also keep in mind that the promoter who has ability to manipulate will try to do it again and over again but the question is how long!
As to price movement, I shall remind you, it has history of serious regression even before demerger. 4/1/2008 - Rs 634 30/1/2009 - Rs 141 10/12/ 2009 bonus share 1:1 3/12/2010- Rs 673 5/10/2012 - Rs 235 27/9/2013 -Rs 145 15/5/2015- Rs 738 demerger
19/6/2015 - Rs 96 All these points have importance to me. So I don't give any avoid call but will play on the back foot till the tip of the wicket. Your present posts also transpire that you are also by and by coming on the back foot with a target set. Thank you in anticipation of a concluding essence from you which will play as a guideline for us.
@ Cautious proprio bhai Where do you see change of colour ? I have not said anything in favour of Adani but a lot againt it. I am neither in ' tukre tukre' gang nor a andha bhakta.I am an investor and a trader as well.I have no investment in Adani group except a small quantity of Awl got in ipo and re-entered. I have consciously avoided adani for any investment. You can't deny the power of manipulation of Adani.In share market , you know, manipulation can give enormous return if the entry and exit is right to moderate. In case of fpo (pp) , dynamism may be different. Say , the Adani ent is trading at 3400 while the pp trading at 1900 or more. As I am a trader , I had some interest in that. Now, the game is clear and such eventuality is a far cry. Still , I have interest in trading in Adani enterprise. On the 25th and 27th , I was able to get something amidst the doldrum. Tomorrow, I shall trade again with initial presumption that any upside will be to trap fresh investors. In this connection, I recollect the ' Veritas' report on rcom some ten years ago. When rcom was trading at 170 to 180, fifteen rupees target was given .Now , the eventuality is known to all. Let's see the proceedings tomorrow. Thank you
113. abc xyz| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 6:06:46 PM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
This fpo is coming before the budget and it's listing would be after budget. The promoters have launched this fpo during budget session and might be very good for the Adani Enterprise which we don't know but may surprise us and pull up the price too. After all it's Adani & everything is possible for them. So I hope and strong feeling for it. Let's wait & watch.
113.1. arvindarvind| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 6:15:01 PM
Top Contributor (900+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Sir They are taking the risk of listing after budget and they are also governing the government. So IMO there is no risk but profit may be very low.
Is It Possible in Kotak Bank To Apply in IPO With FD Funds? I've Heard About ICICI and HDFC (Flexi FD) That Funds Can Be Used in IPO Without Breaking FD If It Is Possible in Kotak Bank Too? Then What's the Process?
Whenever lot of negativity is there for any ipo / fpo profit was always there
Gland Pharma Yes bank fpo Ruchi soya fpo
And many more....
110.1. abc xyz| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 1:52:15 PM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
@Gem Picker Sometimes the Lot of Negativity works in it's favor but sometimes it doesn't Like in case of LIC PAYTM
109. PLAZA| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 10:57:24 AM
IPO Guru (2000+ Posts, 1200+ Likes)
As per the prevailing GMP operator wants to buy retail applications in large and want not to apply by investors in Bhni so that they can put the large quantity of shares I bid irrespective of discount at the last hour.
108. abc xyz| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 7:42:20 AM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
Opinion poll... A. Can Ipo price 3276/ of Adani Enterprise double ( 6400/) in short / medium term? B. Is risk reward ratio favorable for subscribing the ipo? C. Is better option available in the market to have decent profit or only Adani can give the profit?
108.3. arvindarvind| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 10:15:46 AM
Top Contributor (900+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
Sir If you ask the third answer then their is always other option available of each ipo coming. But withing 6 days no other option has 80% surety to give 4 % gain. Here 3 to 4 % gain chances are more than 90%.
How many forms required for 1 time subscription in retail ,SHNI AND BHNI ?
107.1. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 10:13:08 AM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
50,000 in sHNI and 20,000 in bHNI. Past experience suggest that grey market sellers generally apply in this category -bHNI as it has more confirmed allotment chances
106. SSingh| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 4:04:13 AM
IPO Guru (1400+ Posts, 800+ Likes)
โน63/โน66 last heard GMPโฆ
105. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2023 8:07:25 PM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
Everyone who applies in retail has good chances of getting allotment. Risk averse people may sell likely allotment in grey and sleep If grey falls by last day then they can square off and sit on money without worrying about listing price If grey does not fall then the only risk is not getting allotment due to mistake in application SO if you disagree with grey price thinking it is high then sell. You will also pocket Rs 64 of retail discount
Adani wilmar ipo price was 230 per share listed negative 227 mostly and after that rocket........boom....holding wilmar since ipo......adani never disappoint to its investors....although it was my first experience....
103. abc xyz| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2023 11:17:15 AM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
The financial datas of Adani Enterprises CMP : 3582 Market Cap: 408348.41 cr Div yld: 0.03 N. P. Qtr: 432.3 Sales Qtr: 38175.23 cr ROCE : 7.28% P. E. : 338.34 OPM% : 5% ( March 2022) Share capital : 114 cr. Face Value : 1/ Total Liabilities: 123091 / cr( Sep 2022)
@Pandit ji I had commented about FPO of IRCTC and not @abc xyz. @abc xyz on behalf of Pandit ji, I say sorry. Take it easy.
103.4. abc xyz| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2023 3:46:50 PM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
@ PKRAJ No question of Sorry. We are learning from each others experience. I hope you also mean to express that the fpo/ ofs of IRCTC is also trading below ipo price and that's true. The history of ofs / fpo / mega ipos is not great and haven't provided the great returns ( YES bank fpo is exceptional) . So history repeat or sets another record, we have to watch.
102. abc xyz| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2023 11:55:34 AM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
Before this Adani's mega ipo collecting Rs. 20000/cr from the market, we have seen 3 mega ipos and 2 we're psus & 1 private sector. 1. Coal india: October 2010: collected Rs. 15199/ cr ipo@ 245 trading now @ 227
2. LIC : May 2022: collected Rs. 21008/ cr ipo@ 949 trading now @ 698
3. Paytm : November 2021: collected Rs. 18300 / cr ipo@ 2150 trading now @ 550 The history of mega ipos in terms of returns is not good , but let's hope positive and hope Adani will break the previous records. ๐๐๐
102.4. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 10:21:50 AM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
@abc.xyz Coal India opened at premium (at Rs 287) at time of listing and went up to Rs 340 on day of listing. Don't be unfair. You are taking its price after 13 years and convinetly ignoring amount of dividend paid (easily more than Rs 100 during this period) So your point on all mega IPO is not valid
In October 2010, when the IPO of Coal India entered the market, it was a fancy share of that time. IPOsize was also very big looking at that time. Total 15,199 crs. Just imagine the size. I got lot of shares and booked a very good profit. There after Coal India came with OFS of 5% by which Govt. fetch about 12300 crs. in 2015. Again I got lot of shares and booked good profit. Still holding good quantity and good dividend. No regret for price down. Lot of drama by Govt. in PSUs. There are many non PSU companies came with IPOs before 13 to 15, not existing today and many, on the top of the town. No use of comparison between yesterday and today. I think so. Just enjoy the Share Market.
We have to also take inflation into account.. if someone invested in FD, instead of coal India ipo in 2010... it wold have been better.. PSUs, LIC destroying wealth of people..
102.7. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
January 23, 2023 7:21:46 AM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
@amit k singh Coal India dividends IPO price 245 dividend so far Rs 200 plus Show one FD which can beat this return 18 Feb 2011 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 3.5000 08 Sep 2011 Final Dividend - Rs. - 0.4000 15 Mar 2012 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 9.5000 06 Sep 2012 Final Dividend - Rs. - 0.5000 18 Mar 2013 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 9.7000 06 Sep 2013 Final Dividend - Rs. - 4.3000 17 Jan 2014 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 29.0000 03 Mar 2015 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 20.7000 14 Mar 2016 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 27.4000 08 Sep 2016 Buy Back of Shares 14 Mar 2017 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 18.7500 27 Mar 2017 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 1.1500 16 Mar 2018 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 16.5000 28 Dec 2018 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 7.2500 14 Feb 2019 Buy Back of Shares 15 Feb 2019 22 Mar 2019 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 5.8500 19 Mar 2020 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 12.0000 19 Nov 2020 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 7.5000 15 Mar 2021 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 5.0000 02 Sep 2021 Final Dividend - Rs. - 3.5000 06 Dec 2021 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 9.0000 21 Feb 2022 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 5.0000 11 Aug 2022 Final Dividend - Rs. - 3.0000 15 Nov 2022 Interim Dividend - Rs. - 15.0000 1
Arun, if some one put the money in FD, in 13 years 245 rs would have been at least 600rs...so dividend yield is too less without share price appreciation..
102.9. abc xyz| Link| Bookmark|
January 23, 2023 8:01:37 AM
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 1100+ Likes)
@Amit K Singh I am totally convinced with your view and the most important fact is that the person who deals in the Stock Market never so much concerned about the dividend , they only concerns about the market price. Here Bhaav is Bhagwan ( Market price matters) Now some members may not agree with this fact but it's the reality Avenue Supemart is the classic example of this fact. Dmart haven't declared the dividend even though it's the favorite stock of the people and see it's journey from 300 ( ipo price) to 3500-4500. Enjoy the journey in market.
@amit K singh When a person think about FD, it is difficult for him to think about share market. Both the thinking can't run together and when we comment on share's performance after 13 years or so. Compare rate of interest of 2010 and 2021, also not good. Investment in share market is done for appreciation of share price. But it is not possible always. Here I am going to give two examples: Coal India and Power Grid. Both are PSUs. Power Grid gave very good appreciation in terms of price, dividend and even Bonus. Coal India also gave very good return in past. Dividend return is very good. I belive that "Something is better than nothing". Keep faith when you invest. Applying in AEL depends on individual decision. Share market investment is always risky and FD is not risky at all. Divide fund in different field not in one only. LUCK gives return. Enjoy week ahead.
102.11. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
January 23, 2023 11:28:45 AM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
@amit k singh Sorry you are making wrong comprasions. Investor in Coal India had a choice all the time to shift to FD. 2ndly 90% of the dividend were tax free. You are comparing taxable rate of FD 3rdly It is presumed that dividend is reinvested. Actually if one were to reduce excess of dividend from return on FD at Rs 245 then actually you are in profit (excess of dividend over FD interest in one accounting year)
Coal India ipo listed at a hefty premium and for some times it was quoting more than rs 400 and they hv been paying hefty dividend for more than ten years u can't compare this with any other issues
All experts Sir apollo Microsystems, archean chemical & yes bank me mid to long term k liye kya karna chahiye ? Target please
100. hchc| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2023 11:22:57 AM
Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
GMP 55
100.1. Imhilli| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2023 12:02:36 PM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
GMP will vary a lot depending on the market value of the fully paid share. Last day value of the same needs to be checked. I feel, people shouldn't expect a huge listing gain. One should look at the long term perspective and invest. At this level Adani group shares will move like an elephant ๐. Beta factor will be on the lower side.
Generally FPO comes from PSUs. There will be only a few examples of FPO from other than PSUs. PSUs come with FPO with a reason to reduce their holding as per rules and also to meet the disinvestment targets fixed in the Union Budget. To compare both the FPOs is difficult. Take the latest example of IRCTC. It was at 680 a piece and the market price is at 640 during last trading day. It may go up and will go up but when difficult to predict. To subscribe this FPO will be a personal choice according to personal appetite. But low and high of 52 week is very difficult to understand.
@KR d naidu Face value remains the same i.e. 1.00 only. Company is asking 50% on application. The lot will be 4 only and not 8 at all. One can bid in the multiple of 4 shares. Allotted shares will be called partly paid shares and according listed on BSE & NSE.
Please clarify How many shares we get 4 or 8? And how many we can sell on listing 4 or 8
96.1. Imhilli| Link| Bookmark|
January 21, 2023 11:57:19 AM
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 700+ Likes)
4,4 for RII if oversubscribed
96.2. arunARUN| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2023 10:23:57 AM
IPO Guru (1900+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)
Obviously you will get 4 or 8 will depend upon oversubscription or undersubscription You can only sell what you get allotted. Don't be confused by 50% payment You are applying for partly paid shares. You get allotment then either you sell or pay call money after some time when it get called