Aadhar Housing Finance Limited IPO Message Board (Page 30)

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Yes @tejas pandya @admin @prachi @newgen not able to tag? What happened other people are able to tag. Is there any rule now to tag people.

@tejas pandya.... Thinking same to do. Let's see how things unfold

​@Tejas Pandya Bhai.. I will be going full force in this IPO with BHNI and all retail in TBO.

As per my understanding (have mentioned the rational also in my other message), 20-25% listing gains is easy..

Solid anchor book. Honestly, expected a few more bigger FII names.. but still 61 funds in total with many many good FIIs.

It will have good QIB Subscription too.

​@Tejas Pandya Bhai, I always have a preference for low subscription moderate gain IPOs compared to high sub high gain low allotment chance ones.

But I only have 5 accounts and surplus funds, so will be applying FF in both. Aadhar appears very attractively priced relative to peers, so one needs to get comfort on why. In my view 2 reasons
- Marginally lower growth (20-22% vs peers like Aptus / Aavas at 25% in current FY); but this does not warrant 40% discount, especially when Aadhar is market leader
- Blackstone overhang & lack of true "promoters"; Blackstone will sell over next 5 years fully ( 85% to 0), mostly this will get consumed through block deals but usually these happen at discount, and pull price down

I feel 20% listing gain should happen unless market continues to be under pressure. For TBO, that looks like 40-45%, but subscription in BHNI might be 3x in Aadhar, and 12x in TBO, so probability adjusted (with limited funds), it may be better to go FF in Aadhar.

​@Tejas Pandya bhai, must be some software bug or technical glitch. Because i can tag as usual..

@ tejas pandya Sir

I am of the same opinion. TBO is overpriced at current GMP. Allotment chances are also poor.

But I will apply FF in both the IPOs. TBO fully sold, Aadhar fully open.

@tejas pandya

BHNI application distribution : 65-35 (TBO-Aadhar)

FF in retail.

@gj eighteen funds distribution in 2 IPO simultaneously never works for me.. કંઈ નથી મળતું..

Let me rephrase my question:- if one has funds to go FF for only one ipo what would be your choice?

@Tejas pandya

Initially, both companies appear to possess robust fundamentals and exhibit no significant concerns.

Considering your standard practice of applying for 11 BHNI, let's analyze potential scenarios, as per your ask.

To proceed, we must estimate the subscription figure for both IPOs. Let us assume Adhar will be oversubscribed by approximately 5-6 times, while TBO Tek might see a subscription of around 13-15 times.

If you apply 11 BHNI in Adhar and skip TBO Tek, your chance of getting allotment in Adhar is about 6 out of 11, which means you could get 2 allotments. If Adhar gets listed with a 20% higher price, then your profit on 2 applications would be similar to what you might get from 1 allotment in TBO Tek if it lists with a 50% profit. Even you may also get more than 2 allotments in Adhar if you would be lucky on that day.

Hence, opting for full force in Adhar while avoiding TBO Tek seems a prudent strategy, contingent upon the realization of the aforementioned scenarios (real subscription rate + listing estimation). However, there are still uncertainties. Adhar might be oversubscribed more than we expect, or its listing price could be lower than the anticipated 20% premium, or it might even list flat. On the other hand, TBO Tek might not get as much subscription as we think, TBO may also list higher than 50% so If any of these things happen, we could face some setbacks.

Predicting the precise outcome remains elusive. However, given the circumstances, I would advocate for full commitment to Adhar and steering clear of TBO Tek.

Prepare to commit fully to Adhar unless unforeseen developments occur on the final day.

I hope it helps🙌

@tejas pandya As per your strategy,

If you're "Big earning or nothing" type of guy than TBO tek FF

If you're "Something is better than nothing" type of guy than Aadhar FF

Looking to the Anchor book of the Aadhar, backfiring seems less probable as of now.

@Tejas pandya
Ancor book is solid so 50:50 Application is distributed in both TBO and Aadhar

​@Tejas Pandya JI JIS HISAB SE AAPKA LUCK CHAL RAHA HAI.....AAPKO TBO TEK MEIN APPLY KARNA CHAIYE!!!!

JUST ON A LIGHTER NOTE!!!!😂😂🙏🏻🙏🏻

BUT THIS DECISION WILL BE BEST TO TAKE ON LAST MOMENT WHEN FUNDS RELEASE!!!!

Thank you all members for your views..

​@Tejas Pandya Strategy may work or may not work.
If luck favors you may get allotment in TBO Tek and if it doesn't favor then Adhar allotment also may not come as it is lottery eventually.
So, it all boils down to luck.

Personally I'll be applying FF in both as I have funds available after booking some profit in secondary market.

​@rohiitian - Blackstone overhang will keep the gains in check here according to me.

​@Tejas Pandya Sir, others

I am also in same boat and need to decide where to put 7 BHNI applications.
My thoughts:
If we take the listing gain of TBO ~70% vs Aadhar ~25%.
So if someone is applying with 1-2 BHNIs then it should be Aadhar as chances of allotment will be higher vs TBO but if someone is going with more than 5-6 BHNI applications then it should be TBO, as very high likelihood ( i know it can be 0 as well) of getting atleast 1 allotment ( Rs 2L) and can make 1.2L- 1.4L.

In case of Aadhar, out of 5-6 BHNI applications, even if someone one gets 2 allotments return will be ~1L. ( Considering AVG luck case only)

Everyone's view /review highly appreciated 👍 👍

​@Dukes 
I believe that even for 7 BHNIs, it is advisable to opt for Adhar FF, for the following reasons:

- TBO is expected to be subscribed around 12 times, indicating that for 7 BHNIs, the likelihood of allotment is low (speaking in terms of probability).

- In Adhar, subscription is projected to be around 5-7 times, suggesting that based on probability, you may secure at least 1 allotment.

Therefore, Adhar presents a clear advantage in terms of allotment.

- The quality of anchors is strong, thus anticipating a minimum 15% gain for Adhar, making 30-40k Sureshot a better option compared to either 100k or 0, where the chances of receiving 0 are high.

The final day's subscription figures will provide a clearer picture.

I hope this helps.

This is the beauty of this forum..we got to know how some of the best minds of markets are thinking ❤️

@Tejas pandya what's Your final call?? Kya krne Wale ho? Please share

​@Tejas Pandya 
Bhai apka bhi decision batana..
Kuch hume bhi fayda hoga..

ye ipo ko aptus value se compare kre to, mind divert ho rha hai

any one can remember........?

It's a finance company bro bank and finance will always have huge borrowing

Nikk Sirji, thoda google karlo, nbfc,hfc hote kya hain, kaise kaam karte hain. Bas premium dekh ke apply nahi karna hain